Landmark International report: Current emissions pathways threaten 2 billion people in the Hindu Kush Himalayas
a major new assessment Report Global warming is causing “unprecedented and largely irreversible changes” in glaciers, snowpack and permafrost in the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH), according to a report released today.
The study, “Water, ice, society and ecosystems in the Hindu Kush Himalayas,” comes from International Center for Integrated Mountain Developmentan intergovernmental body eight member states Located in the HKH area. The report maps the links between the cryosphere, water, biodiversity and society in the region, mapping the impacts of rapid changes in glaciers and snow on humans and nature.
The glaciers and snowpack of the Himalayas’ more than 3,000 named peaks are vital water resources that climate change threatens to destroy. photo: more and more/Flickr
Ice and snow in HKH are important water source Twelve rivers flowing through 16 countries in Asia provide freshwater and other important ecosystem services to 240 million people in the mountains and 1.65 billion people downstream, the report said. Vulnerable mountain communities are already experiencing significant adverse impacts – including disasters that cause loss and destruction of life, property, heritage and infrastructure, leading to displacement and psychological impact.
The publication of the report comes as cryospheric scientists at Bonn Climate Change Conference Alarm bells were sounded earlier this month about the speed and scale of global ice melt, far exceeding worst-case forecasts by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The meeting, known as the 58th United Nations Climate Change Subsidiary Body Meeting, is an important trigger for the annual global climate conference. COP28will be held in the United Arab Emirates in December.
Glaciers in HKH can lose will reach 80% of its current number by the end of the century Current emissions trajectory, according to reports. Under the high-emissions scenario, snow cover is projected to be reduced by up to a quarter—dramatically reducing freshwater for major rivers such as the Amu Darya in Afghanistan and several Central Asian countries, which account for 74 percent of river flows, including the Indus (India and Pakistan). 40% of river flow) and the Helmand River in Iran and Afghanistan (77% of river flow). Permafrost is also declining in the region, which will lead to more landslides and high-altitude infrastructure problems.
Both the Indus (above) and Helmand rivers are fed by glaciers and have been the site of bitter water disputes and conflicts between the countries that use them. photo: McKay Savage/Flickr
The study warns that communities and governments need urgent support and funding to deal with the accelerated impacts on society and nature from changes in the cryosphere as temperatures rise, with funding currently flowing to the region “seriously insufficient” to deal with it The challenges ahead will be faced. Scientists predict devastating consequences for water and food security, energy, ecosystems, and the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people in Asia, many beyond the limits of adaptation.
Izabella Koziell, Deputy Director-General International Center for Integrated Mountain Development“Two billion people in Asia depend on water from glaciers and snow,” said a press release. [the HKH] believes that the consequences of losing this cryosphere are unimaginable. We need leaders to act now to prevent catastrophe. As this research shows, in addition to urgent mitigation actions, we need to rapidly scale up adaptation funds and programs and ecosystem restoration, and mobilize funding for loss and damage. “
The study found that HKH’s water availability is projected to peak by 2050, driven by accelerated glacial melt. It is then projected to decline, and localized changes in glaciers and snowmelt can create enormous uncertainty for mountain communities and large lowland populations.
KKH’s Hassanabad bridge collapses due to Shishper glacier lake outburst flood #Hunza #climateemergency #climateactionnow #climatecrisis #global warming pic.twitter.com/ANmp1neNZe
— Pamir Times® (@pamirtimes) May 7, 2022
flood Landslides are also expected to increase in the coming decades, with slow-onset hazards, such as deposition and erosion, and fast-onset hazards, such as glacier outburst flood. The 200 glacial lakes across the HKH are considered hazardous, and the risk of outburst flooding in the region could rise substantially by the end of the century. Combined with population growth and increased economic activity in the region, exposure to these hazards creates an increased risk of loss and destruction, including population displacement.
The report found that the changing cryosphere has disproportionately affected vulnerable mountain habitats, with cascading effects reported across most ecosystems and affecting most resident species. Species declines and extinctions have been reported, as well as migrations of species to higher altitudes, ecosystem degradation, habitat suitability declines, and alien species invasions. “As 67 percent of HKH’s ecoregion and 39 percent of the four global biodiversity hotspots located in HKH remain outside protected areas,” the region’s ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate impacts, according to the report.
“There is still time to save this critical region, but only if rapid and deep emissions reductions begin now,” Koziell said. Every little bit of warming affects the region’s glaciers, with serious consequences for the hundreds of millions of people who depend on them for their livelihoods, she said.
Philippus Wester, editor-in-chief of the report and research fellow at the Institute International Center for Integrated Mountain Developmentstressing the need for immediate action in an interview with GlacierHub, he said: “We now know with great confidence that by 2100, with global warming at 2 degrees Celsius, the region will lose 50% of its glacier volume, while At 1.5C, that would be only 30%. This huge difference shows that every warming counts.” He sees the report as a “clarion call” for urgent climate action to protect the environment, health, health and safety of the region’s 240 million people. livelihood and well-being.
Miriam Jackson, Cryospheric Risk Intervention Manager at the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development, briefed GlacierHub on the new report: “Conditions are changing rapidly in the Hindu Kush Himalayas. From one decade to the next. In 2019, we saw a dramatic increase in glacial melt. Our data and knowledge of the region is also growing rapidly. The question is, can people in these mountains adapt so quickly?”
glacier center is a climate communication initiative led by Ben Orloff, an anthropologist at the Columbia Climate Institute. Many of GlacierHub’s authors are students or alumni of the Climate School.
