Nowcast from Atlanta Fed plus tracking from GS released today.
figure 2: GDP (black bold), GDO (tan), GDP+ (green), Q4 GDPNow (red squares), Goldman Sachs (sky blue triangle), IHS Markit (inverted pink triangle), Bloomberg as of 1/10 Consensus (orange line) ), all in billions Ch.2012$, SAAR. GDP+ level calculated by iterating 2019Q4 GDP (when GDP and GDO are matched). Source: BEA (3rd Edition Q4), Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (12/22), Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (1/10), Goldman Sachs (1/10), IHS Markit (1/6), Bloomberg and author’s calculations.
GDPNow (4.1%) is well above the Bloomberg consensus (2.4%), as well as the latest data from Goldman Sachs and IHS Markit.
IHS Markit/S&P Global Opinion as of 1/6 [not online]:
Despite overall strong growth in the fourth quarter, our near-term outlook for the U.S. still paints a mild recession beginning in the first quarter of 2023, with a peak-to-trough decline of 0.6% in GDP, according to our estimates.
Mark Zandi (Moody’s) and heather bush (CEA) said a “soft landing” was possible, while Jan Hatzus Having said in the past a soft landing is possible, he sees a more likely one given the December jobs release.
