this FT Booth Macroeconomists Survey was released today. GDP in the fourth quarter of 2024 is expected to grow by 2.1%.
figure 1: GDP (bold black), CBO forecast (blue), survey of professional forecasters (red), FT-Booth median forecast (brown inverted triangle), GDPNow at 3/14 (light blue square), all in units of 1000000000. Ch.2017$. Sources: BEA 2024 Q4 Second Release, CBO Budget and Economic Outlook (February), Philadelphia Fed SPF, Booth School, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (3/14) and author's calculations.
The median growth rate is 2.1%, with a lower/upper limit of 10%, 1.6% and 2.5% respectively. This growth rate is higher than February's median SPF growth rate of 1.7%. (I'm decidedly more pessimistic than the median, with my point estimate at 1.7%.)
What about a recession? Currently, modal response has been postponed to 2026 or later.
source: Booth School.
The recession start date has been pushed back again, with the response pattern moving to 2026 or later. In the December survey, 42% said it would start in the third quarter of 2025 or later.
Finally, respondents weighed r*:
source: Booth School.
The modal response of r* is between 1%-2%, which is consistent with the estimates shown here postaland this postal. Only 3 people (out of 38) believe that r* > 2% (only the Lubik-Mathes estimate is consistent).
“Economists say the Fed will have to keep interest rates high longer than markets expect.” The Financial Times highlighted other aspects of the investigation.
