Every Eckhout(2023)CPI and PPI actuals, as well as PCE, headline and core live forecasts.
figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) for CPI (bold blue), PCE deflator (tan) and PPI (green). As of April 11, the March PCE Watch is now available.Calculate every Eckhout(2023).Sources: BLS, BEA, from FRED, and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (Viewed April 11, 2024) and the author's calculations.
figure 2: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) for core CPI (bold blue), core PCE deflator (tan) and core PPI (green). As of April 11, the March PCE Watch is now available.Calculate every Eckhout(2023).Sources: BLS, BEA, from FRED, and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (Viewed April 11, 2024) and the author's calculations.
Note that the instantaneous core CPI has leveled off, while both the core PCE deflator and core PPI have declined. However, March core PCE is currently forecast to be 2.9%, still above the 2% target.
