Industrial production was -0.6% month-on-month, compared with market expectations of -0.3%. Here are the business cycle indicators followed by NBER’s BCDC and monthly GDP from SPGMI (formerly The Macroeconomic Advisor):
figure 1: Nonfarm employment employment includes preliminary baseline (dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), 2017 personal income excluding transfers (green), 2017 manufacturing and trade sales$ (black), Consumption of monthly GDP (pink) and GDP (blue bars) in Ch.2017$ (light blue), 2017, Ch.2017$ in 2017, all logarithms normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics preliminary benchmarksFederal Reserve, BEA 2023Q2 released for the third time, fully revised, S&P Global/IHS Markit (Nigerian macroeconomic consultant, IHS Markit) (11/1/2023 release) and the author’s calculations.
The downside is surprising consumer price index Industrial production appears to have depressed 10-year Treasury yields, while the surprise impact of the Producer Price Index (PPI) was minimal.
