ovid may reach 200,000 one day after the case Boris Johnson Scraps limit On July 19, a famous scientist issued a warning on Tuesday.
professor Neil Ferguson, Epidemiologist Imperial College London, Which outlines how death comes from coronavirus In one of the worst cases, it may increase to about 200 people per day, or to about 25,000 in the third wave that hit the country and was driven by the epidemic. delta Variants.
However, he thinks governmentGiven the high level of vaccination in the UK, the UK’s actions to lift restrictions are “reasonable” and “quite optimistic” that the country will get rid of some more severe predictions.
Professor Ferguson’s work is the key to the first lockdown ordered by the Prime Minister in March 2020. He stated that the ratio of cases to deaths has been reduced by about eight to ten times compared with the second wave.
“At the peak of the second wave, 50,000 cases will translate into about 500 deaths,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today program.
“But it will be much lower… this time, it’s more like 50 or so.
“The challenge is that there may still be a large number of cases. This is a million-dollar problem… If we receive a large number of cases every day — 150,000, 200,000 — it may still put some pressure on the health system, and of course there is some public health. burden.”
The new Minister of Health, Sajid Javid, admitted that the number of daily cases may be “far higher” than the 50,000 or more expected on July 19, but defended the end of the blockade and emphasized the success of the jab deployment.
When the restrictions were lifted on July 19, the “Big Bang”, Professor Ferguson said: “This is a slight gamble, and it is only a small experiment at the moment.
“I think this is reasonable, and I am quite optimistic.
“But the policy must remain flexible.
“If we finally get close to the worst-case scenario that we and other groups are considering, I think this is unlikely, but it cannot be ruled out. Then yes, some route corrections may be needed in the future.”
When asked if it is possible to tell how big the bet the government is betting, he added: “It is difficult to be accurate. There are two reasons for this.
“First of all, we know that vaccines are very effective, but for example, the difference between them is 97% effective in preventing death and 93% effective in preventing death. This is difficult to resolve statistically, basically The difference between the two. The third wave of a certain scale, assuming 10,000 deaths and the third wave 25,000 deaths, small changes in these numbers will have a big impact on the forecast,” he explained.
“The second reason… is difficult to solve because we don’t know the vaccine coverage accurately.
“If you look at the official statistics, some age groups seem to have vaccinated more than 100% of the population of that age group. This just reflects the fact that we don’t have an accurate understanding of the denominator and the number of vaccinations. Frankly speaking, People live in this country at the right time.”
He also emphasized that the four-week delay in lifting the coronavirus restrictions “is worth it.”
“Models often show that the four-week delay we just ended does have benefits in terms of increasing vaccination and giving a second dose to people over 40,” he said. .
“I should say that 99% of everyone who died in this pandemic in the UK was over 40 years old.
“When we finally relax, almost everyone in this age group will receive two doses of the vaccine to provide a high level of protection.
“There are other benefits, there are some benefits, but they are progressive.”