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Neil Ferguson warns that Covid cases may reach 200,000 days after July 19


C

ovid may reach 200,000 one day after the case Boris Johnson Scraps limit On July 19, a famous scientist issued a warning on Tuesday.

professor Neil Ferguson, Epidemiologist Imperial College London, Which outlines how death comes from coronavirus In one of the worst cases, it may increase to about 200 people per day, or to about 25,000 in the third wave that hit the country and was driven by the epidemic. delta Variants.

However, he thinks governmentGiven the high level of vaccination in the UK, the UK’s actions to lift restrictions are “reasonable” and “quite optimistic” that the country will get rid of some more severe predictions.

Professor Ferguson’s work is the key to the first lockdown ordered by the Prime Minister in March 2020. He stated that the ratio of cases to deaths has been reduced by about eight to ten times compared with the second wave.

“At the peak of the second wave, 50,000 cases will translate into about 500 deaths,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today program.

“But it will be much lower… this time, it’s more like 50 or so.

“The challenge is that there may still be a large number of cases. This is a million-dollar problem… If we receive a large number of cases every day — 150,000, 200,000 — it may still put some pressure on the health system, and of course there is some public health. burden.”

The new Minister of Health, Sajid Javid, admitted that the number of daily cases may be “far higher” than the 50,000 or more expected on July 19, but defended the end of the blockade and emphasized the success of the jab deployment.

When the restrictions were lifted on July 19, the “Big Bang”, Professor Ferguson said: “This is a slight gamble, and it is only a small experiment at the moment.

“I think this is reasonable, and I am quite optimistic.

“But the policy must remain flexible.

“If we finally get close to the worst-case scenario that we and other groups are considering, I think this is unlikely, but it cannot be ruled out. Then yes, some route corrections may be needed in the future.”

When asked if it is possible to tell how big the bet the government is betting, he added: “It is difficult to be accurate. There are two reasons for this.



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