Experts’ eyes are starting to turn to next winter as Europe keeps its lights on for the festive season, despite an energy crisis that has gripped the continent for more than a year.
While the grid remains focused on making sure there is enough gas and electricity to supply homes in the coming months, experts are already concerned that the same challenge could recur next winter, if not worse.
The effects of the current gas crisis are likely to last longer. In December, one of the UK’s most respected energy consultancies warned that gas prices were likely to remain high through the end of the decade.
Replenish
Just this winter, Brits have been forced to pay more than ever to keep warm. The same is true of most countries in Europe, where gas and electricity prices have soared over the past year and a half.
Conditions on the continent next winter will largely depend on how cold January, February and March will be, experts say.
If the weather is unusually warm, it is unlikely that people will need as much gas to keep warm, leaving European gas storage sites with more reserves at the end of winter.
That would make it easier to replenish inventories in continental Europe during the summer, even without Russian gas.
retire
Investec senior analyst Martin Young said more wind power would come online before next winter, which would help power supply. However, uncertainty remains for some coal and nuclear power generators.
The UK government has struck a deal with older coal-fired power plants that are being decommissioned so they will provide electricity this winter if needed. So far this has not been necessary, but ministers may want to extend it until next winter.
“My hunch is that we’re not going to see a huge change on the supply side in the UK, and if you look at the wider European context, it will ultimately depend on where we spend the winter,” he said.
Even though supplies from Russia dried up last summer, some gas is still coming through, allowing Europeans to put it on hold for a rainy day.
limited
Pipelines linking Russia to Europe may all shut down next summer.
As a result, much of the gas imported to the continent will have to be brought in by ship from the US, Qatar and elsewhere.
However, there are only a limited number of liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers in the world and limited places they can call in Europe.
To be able to bring more of this gas (cooled to around -160 degrees Celsius to turn it into a liquid for easier storage and transport) to European shores, new terminal projects have sprung up or are advancing fast in recent months.
In December, Germany opened its first-ever liquefied natural gas terminal – marking a sea change in energy policy for the country, which used to be closely tied to Russian gas imports.
