Instantly lower than y/y:
figure 1: Title CPI inflation rate, y/y (bold blue), core CPI inflation rate y/y (tan), trimmed average CPI inflation rate m/m annual rate (tan), CPI median inflation rate m/ m annual rate (pink), headline CPI instantaneous, T=12, a=4 per Eikehout (bold red), all expressed in %. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland via FRED, Bureau of Labor Statisticsand the author's calculations.
Using a range of indicators designed to track inflation trends (core, super core, median, average and instantaneous), inflation appears to be falling, albeit not as quickly as one might think.
The instantaneous inflation rate (T=12, a=4) is currently 2.4%. The implied CPI target consistent with 2% PCE inflation is about 2.45% (0.45 is the difference between CPI and PCE inflation during 1986-2019), so the instantaneous inflation is about the implicit target.
BLS Super Core The annual growth rate is 2.6%.For everything you want to know about core services (except housing inflation), see Pavel Skorzypczynski's website. The current annual growth rate is 4.1%, up from 3.9% in October.
Here's a comparison of headline and core instantaneous inflation.
figure 2: Title CPI instantaneous inflation, y/y (blue bold), core CPI instantaneous inflation (tan), T=12, a=4 Eikehout (bold red), all expressed in %. Source: BLS and author's calculations.
Note that when the m/m core pops up, the instantaneous core is flat.
