Oil prices fell and futures were in backwardation. Gasoline prices also fell from their June peak.
figure 1: Oil, monthly average (blue) and NYMEX futures prices as of 11/4 (brown) for WTI, USD/bbl, log scale. Source: EIA via FRED, ino.com.
While futures prices show a decline (now and in October), the EIA STEO forecast for October is for a price increase. Presumably, this pattern will persist when November’s STEO launches. (That being said, statistical analysis usually Indicates that futures have outperformed most forecasts, although STEO’s predictions are doing well. )
Regular gasoline prices also fell.
figure 2: Regular price per gallon, $/gallon (blue) and actual price, 2020 $/gallon (red), on a log scale. Actual prices calculated using core CPI, using October CPI up to 11/4’s now forecast. The NBER uses shades of grey to define the peak and trough dates of the recession. Source: EIA via FRED, BLS via FRED, Cleveland FedNBER and author’s calculations.
