Jim will have more data in a few hours, but for now, this is GDPNow as of Oct. 26, compared to monthly GDP (as of Oct. 4) and the Philly Fed Confidence Index.
figure 1: The U.S. Coincidence Index (cyan), IHS-Markit’s monthly GDP (pink), and official GDP (blue bars) are all normalized to 2021M11=0. Q3 is the GDPNow nowcast as of October 26. The lilac shading indicates a hypothetical 2022H1 recession. resource: Philadelphia FedIHS-Markit (10/4 edition), BEA and Atlanta Fed (10/26 edition), and authors’ calculations.
Note that the U.S. Concurrent Index, which reflects the monthly labor market and other indicators, has been on a steady upward trend during a hypothetical recession in the first half of 2022.
Moreover, whatever recession has occurred at the regional level, it does not appear to have risen to recessionary levels, at least according to the diffusion index relative to the coincidence index.
figure 2: Consensus Index for the United States (blue, left scale), Diffusion Index for 1-month change in Concordance Index (tan, right scale). NBER defines the peak-valley decay dates for shades of gray. The lilac shading indicates a hypothetical 2022H1 recession. resource: Philadelphia FedNBER and author’s calculations.
This is a map of the United States, using three The monthly growth rate in the coincident index, showing the extent to which economic activity has declined (or not).
resource: Philadelphia FedPublished October 26, 2022.