The March/April forecast was up slightly, but still below mid-2022.
figure 1: Year-over-year CPI inflation (black), median expectations from Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue+), median expectations from Michigan Consumer Survey (red), median expectations from NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (light green), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), SoFIE all from Coibion-Gorodnichenko Company Expectations Survey [light blue squares], all expressed in %. The Michigan March observations are preliminary. Dates of peak-to-trough recessions as defined by NBER are shaded in gray.Sources: BLS, University of Michigan, from FRED and Investment Network, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, the fed, cleveland fed and Coibion and Gorodnichenkoand the National Bureau of Economic Research.
data here (XLSX).
Consumer surveys (Michigan, NY Fed) point to a slight uptick.This is also reflected in the view of economists, at least in terms of Wall Street Journal April Survey.
source: The Wall Street Journal, April 15, 2023.
Note that June 24 is closest to March 2024 (corresponding to the last Michigan and New York Fed surveys). From the January-April survey, expected inflation through June 2024 was up 16 basis points year-over-year.
