New York Fed consumer expectations rose in June, while Michigan consumer expectations fell in July. The Wall Street Journal’s July survey implies annual inflation of 3.9% in June 2023.
figure 1: CPI YoY Inflation (black), Median Expectations from Professional Forecasters Survey (Blue+), Median Expectations from Michigan Consumer Survey (Preliminary) (Red), Median NY Fed Consumer Expectations Survey (Light Green) , forecast from the Cleveland Fed (pink), average from the Coibion-Gorodnichenko Corporate Expectations Survey [light blue squares]. Michigan’s July observations are preliminary.Source: BLS, University of Michigan via FRED and Investing.com, Reuters, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, New York Fed, Cleveland Fed and Kobe and Gorodnichenko.
While the NY Fed’s one-year inflation forecast rose to 6.8% in July from 6.6%, the median three-year forecast fell to 4.60% from 4.76% (down from 4.88% in March).
