- An internal CDC document indicates that the Delta variant poses a growing threat in the United States.
- But Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown School of Public Health, called the document “reassuring.”
- Jha wrote that the bottom line is that Delta Air Lines is “very bad”, but our vaccine is “very good.”
- More stories Go to www.BusinessInsider.co.za.
First, the bad news: people who are fully vaccinated can Delta variants are as easily transmitted as unvaccinated people,according to In-house demonstration by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Obtained by The Washington Post.
The chart in the presentation shows that each person infected with Delta is likely to spread the coronavirus to 5 to 9.5 people on average, which makes it easier to spread than the virus that causes Ebola. common cold, And smallpox-and As easy as chickenpox.
But Ashish Jha, the dean of the Brown School of Public Health, said there is also a lot of positive news in the document.
“I found these slides very insightful and largely reassuring,” Jha Wrote on Twitter on Thursday.
He pointed out that data shows that out of the 162 million vaccinated Americans, only 35,000 have symptomatic Covid-19 cases every week-the rate is only 0.02%.
Jha said that this number may be a bit too low.Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Stop tracking asymptomatic, mild or moderate breakthrough cases At the national level in May, its data was limited. Therefore, Jha estimates that this number may be close to 300,000 breakthrough cases per week, or 19%.
Jha said that nonetheless, given that half of Americans are fully vaccinated, this means that the current vaccine in the United States has a protection rate of about 88% against Covid-19 and an effective rate of more than 90% against serious infections.
This is consistent with data from other countries: research from UK and Scotland show Pfizer’s two-dose vaccine Reduces the risk of symptomatic Delta infection by 88%, which is lower than 95% of the original strain. Studies have shown that the vaccine also reduces the risk of any type of delta infection by 79% and the risk of hospitalization in the delta by 96%.
In addition, a Canadian learn Still waiting for peer review to find that after Pfizer injected two doses, the risk of symptomatic Delta infection decreased by 87%, and the risk of Delta hospitalization or death decreased by 100%.
However, data from the Israeli Ministry of Health show that Suggest less protection: 64% fight against Delta infection (asymptomatic or symptomatic), 93% fight against Delta serious illness or hospitalization.
According to Jha, the bottom line is that Delta is “really bad”, but: “Our vaccine is good. It’s like it’s really good.”
“Breakthrough infection happened,” he said wrote“Sometimes they may be transmitted to other people. But if enough people are vaccinated, the pandemic will end.”
The CDC estimated last week that unvaccinated people accounted for approximately 97% of hospitalized Covid-19 cases in the United States. The presentation leaked by the agency also showed that the vaccine reduces the risk of hospitalization or death by 25 times.
In the case of delayed vaccination, Delta Air Lines led the CDC to recommend wearing masks again
It is difficult to say how many Americans need to be vaccinated to force the coronavirus to spread at a low level, rather than a sharp surge.
Dr. Monica Gandhi, an infectious disease expert at the University of California, San Francisco, Tell the insider recently Once 75% of the population has received at least one dose of the vaccine, Covid-19 cases and hospitalization trends may no longer be closely related.
So far, only 57% of the U.S. population has received at least one dose of the vaccine, but the nationwide vaccination rate is still declining. Last month, the number of daily vaccinations in the United States fell by an average of 25%-from 573,000 to 431,000 daily.However, states like Arkansas and Louisiana have seen Their vaccination rate has risen slightly recent.
Given the spread of Delta variants, the CDC Recommended tuesday Fully vaccinated people wear masks indoors “in high-volume and high-spread areas”.This constitutes approximately 70% of U.S. counties Now.
Nonetheless, “the vast majority of transmissions, the vast majority of serious diseases, hospitalizations and deaths occur almost exclusively in people who have not been vaccinated,” said Rochelle Varensky, director of the CDC, on Tuesday.
