Christiane Baumeister shared a snapshot of the week ending October 29, 2022 compared to the same week one year ago, as measured by growth rate relative to the long-term national average growth rate, measured by Buameister/Leiva-Leon/Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index.
The index is described in this postal and is referenced in many posts on this blog.
According to the index, what is the recession outlook at the state level?
So while the real-time recession probability aggregated at the state level is currently low, the forecast for the next 52 weeks is one of increased probability.
This is the latest reading as of today.
figure 1: Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Index (blue), Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims U.S. Weekly Economic Conditions Index plus 2% Trend (green). Lavender shading indicates a hypothetical recession in the first half of 2022.Source: New York Fed via fred, OECD, WECIand the author’s calculations.
