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Recession in 2022? | Economic browser


from Reader John H. September 2022, who now says he “Not cheering for a recession in mid-2022”.

…assuming of course that we don’t fall into a recession yet…after a massive economic slowdown! Of course, recession deniers try to disbelieve the GNP numbers – “Don't worry; be happy!”

I don't have a graph of GNP, but here is GDP and other variables that the NBER BCDC focuses on.

figure 1: Nonfarm payrolls including baseline revisions (bold dark blue), implied levels using Bloomberg consensus as of February 1 and December 2023 NFP (blue+), civilian employment (orange), industrial Production (red), China’s personal income excluding current transfers in 2017$ (bold green), Manufacturing and trade sales in 2017$ (black), Consumption$ in 2017 (light blue), and 2017$ Monthly GDP $ (pink), GDP, third release (blue bar), Q1 2024 GDPNow as of February 1 (lilac box), all logarithms normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics preliminary benchmarksFederal Reserve, BEA 2023Q3 2nd Edition, contains comprehensive revisions, S&P Global Market Insights (Nigerian macroeconomic consultant, IHS Markit) (2/1/Published in 2024) and the author's calculations.

It is worth noting that with the exception of manufacturing and trade sales and personal income (net of transfer payments) and GDP, all other series showed an upward trend in the first half of 2022.



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