Report published at COP27 gives ‘final diagnosis’ of summer sea ice
On November 7, the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative released its annual report on the state of the cryosphere at the International Climate Conference. COP27, in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. The report provides troubling news about the current and projected impact on the world’s ice — so important to human societies and ecosystems — but hopes to limit future damage through rapid and dramatic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
Last year at COP26, the first State of the Cryosphere report conveyed the numerous threats to the cryosphere posed by rising emissions, including what it called “the unstoppable rate of global sea level rise”. Unfortunately, this year’s State of the Cryosphere report has even more dire news, as its title “Growing Losses, Global Implications” reflects. The report predicts that the complete disappearance of Arctic summer sea ice in some years is now “inevitable”. This unprecedented scenario is not out of reach—even if emissions are very low, the year in which all summer sea ice in the Arctic disappears could happen before 2050.
Sea ice extent projections for September based on different emission reduction scenarios by 2100.Image credit: State of the Cryosphere 2022 Report
This “final diagnosis” of future events is combined with additional irreversible effects on other components of the cryosphere already observed over the past year. These include the first recorded methane release from permafrost as a result of global warming, the first September peak of surface melt in Greenland, the loss of more than 5 percent of ice from Alpine glaciers this summer, and ocean acidification marked by damage to Arctic shells exacerbate.
A shrinking cryosphere will have implications farther from the poles, especially in coastal areas and communities downstream from glaciers. These impacts could include sea level rise, increased flood risk, reduced water supplies, and total loss of glaciers beyond the polar regions. As detailed in last year’s State of the Cryosphere report, some of those impacts – such as the potential collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet – will be “devastating”. GlacierHub Editor Ben Oloff— New report author, co-director MSc in Climate and Society “The new study confirms that glacier retreat is significantly exacerbating flood risk in populated areas, especially in Asia,” said a professor at the Columbia School of Climate and Columbia School of International and Public Affairs.
Bangladesh will be flooded if sea level rises by three meters.Credit: Climate Center
In the Cryosphere Pavilion at COP27, a totem representing the planet’s ice and snow regions collapsed to commemorate this “final diagnosis” and other impacts on the cryosphere. A ceremony to recognize the “collapsed totem” took place directly with the participation of Arctic youth, indigenous peoples and sea ice experts. While the ceremony was a somber acknowledgment that, as the report states, “we cannot prevent the future loss of this critical cryosphere dynamic”, it underscores the importance of reducing emissions after the 1.5°C limit set in the 2015 Paris Agreement sex to avoid even more severe cryosphere damage.
Orlove said: “Although it has been known for many years that glaciers are shrinking on every continent, the rate of glacial retreat in 2022 is still alarming, with unprecedented levels of glaciers in the Alps and Pyrenees leading to Glacier Collapse Case and severe external system losses. “
Despite these losses, Orlove remains cautiously optimistic. “New work integrating field observations and models shows that we still have time to protect many glaciers if we transition to a low-emission scenario in the near future,” he said.
In this way, the cryosphere joins many other parts of the world — tropical forests, coral reefs, coastal areas, and farmland and woodland around the planet — calling for urgent and rapid reductions in emissions.
