Research says climate change makes Europe more likely to have deadly flash floods

The scientist says global warming The extreme rainfall that caused deadly flash floods in Western Europe last month is more likely to occur, although it is unclear how much.

At least 220 people died in Germany and Belgium from July 14th to 15th, when turbulent streams turned into raging rivers, scouring houses, roads and bridges, and causing billions of euros (US dollars) in damage.

A study released by the World Weather Attribution Group on Tuesday used historical records and computer simulations to study how temperature affects rainfall from the end of the 19th century to the present. Although this research has not been evaluated by independent scientists, its authors use widely accepted methods to quickly assess specific weather events such as floods, droughts, and heat waves.

The study found that in a large area of ​​Western Europe-from the Netherlands to Switzerland-during this period, the day’s rainfall increased by 3% to 19%, during which the global temperature rose by 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit).

Experts say that for every 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degree Fahrenheit) the earth heats up, the air can absorb 7% more water. When this water is released, it will cause more extreme rainfall.

This study, conducted by nearly 40 researchers from six European countries and the United States, calculated that the downpour that caused the flood last month is now 1.2 to 9 times more likely than it is now-if the earth continues to heat up, This situation will increase further.

1:56Death toll from catastrophic floods in Europe is expected to climb

Frank Kreienkamp of DWD, the German National Weather Service, who participated in the writing of the study, said that these findings support the predictions in the recent UN climate report.

“Humanity is clearly changing and warming the Earth’s climate,” he said. “With this warming, we have also seen changes in extreme weather.”

The author said that the destruction and loss of life seen in this disaster highlights the need for countries to take more measures to curb greenhouse gas emissions and prepare for such disasters.

Friedrich Otto, deputy director of the Institute of Environmental Change at the University of Oxford, said: “These floods show us that even developed countries are not immune to the severe effects of the extreme weather we are seeing.” “This is an urgent global Challenges, we need to step up to deal with them. The science is clear and has existed for many years.”