from Bofita revision from a few years ago, showing a larger decline in the second quarter (5.2% q/q versus the initial 1.9%).
resource: Buffett (12/23/2022).
The GDP decline in the middle two quarters of 2022 results in an annualized decline of 9.6%.
Are sanctions effective? As of March 3, S&P Global forecasts are down 7% (q4/q4).If Russia’s GDP was flat in Q4, then Q4/Q4 would be a 12.7% decline, not far off the IMF’s -13.9% in July World Economic Outlook Update forecast.this world economic outlook The November forecast was for a decline of 7.6% (based on the revised GDP estimate); to meet this forecast, Q4 growth would have to be 5.9% QoQ (not annualized).
Impact summary based on Wow forecast from Nelson/CRS:
resource:R. Nelson, “Economic Impact of Russian Sanctions”, vol. CRS Issue Brief 12092 (December 13, 2022).
Other recent discussions about the impact of sanctions on Russia come from NPR, Now.
While I focus on macroeconomic impacts, recall that the primary goal of sanctions is to reduce Russia’s willingness and ability to wage war in Ukraine (see, for example, State Council)
