Short-term growth prospects are being revised upward. But how long can this last when policy rates rise and oil prices remain low?
First, the policy rate was raised in December. They are now comparable to the speed achieved at the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine:
source: Trade Economic Network Date viewed: January 16, 2024.
At the same time, the price of oil obtained by Russia remains at the upper limit level of around US$60/barrel.
source: Trade Economic Network Date viewed: January 16, 2024.
Russia's trade balance has dropped to about a quarter of what it was after Russia's expanded invasion.
source: Trade Economic Network Date viewed: January 16, 2024.
This result suggests that financing critical imports will become more difficult over time due to the inability to borrow (and access to frozen assets).
