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Sentiment, Confidence, News: January 2024


The Conference Board's confidence index rose, according to the University of Michigan's sentiment survey.

figure 1: University of Michigan consumer confidence (blue), Conference Board consumer confidence (tan) and Shapiro, Sudhoff, and Wilson (2020) Daily news sentiment index (green), both deflated and normalized by standard deviation (for the sample period shown). The December observations in Michigan are preliminary. December News Index observations are as of January 7, 2024. NBER-defined recession peak-to-trough dates appear gray. Source: U.Mich (from FRED), The Conference Board (from Investing.com), SF FedNBER, and author's calculations.

FuGuo bank The “Animal Spirits Index” is constructed, which is the first principal component of five variables: (1) S&P 500 Index, (2) Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, (3) Yield Spread, (4) ) VIX Index (5) Economic Policy Uncertainty Index.

source: Wells Fargo, January 30, 2024.

Like the confidence and sentiment indices, the ASI has trended upward in recent months, reaching pre-pandemic levels in December.



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