The overall CPI recorded its second highest increase since January 2021.
figure 1: All-city CPI (bold black), wage and clerical CPI (pink), chain CPI (tan), HICP (green), PCE deflator (red), market-based PCE (light blue), all seasonally adjusted, expressed in logarithmic form 2021M01=0. The author uses X-13 (log transformation) to seasonally adjust chained CPI and HICP. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, European Commission, BEA, FRED, and author's calculations.
Note that while the weights for overall CPI have been updated more frequently in recent years, the month-on-month CPI (a series of studies) has seen smaller increases. On the other hand, wages and clerical personnel CPI increased slightly higher than the overall increase.
The HICP rise will be smaller until March 2024, partly because it excludes owner-occupied housing costs. It also covers rural and urban consumers.
at last, PCE (market based) Among them, the increase is the smallest, even lower than traditional PCE.
The cumulative increase range through March 2024 is 0.141 to 0.179 in logarithmic terms (i.e. 14% vs. 18%).
