With today’s employment release, we have live Sahm Rule metrics as of June:
resource: Fredaccessed July 8, 2022.
The indicator does not suggest that we were in a recession as of mid-June (when the survey was conducted), the contrary suggests (E.g).See here for other high frequency based metrics as of June postal.
Here are some key metrics that NBER’s BCDC follows:
figure 1: Nonfarm payrolls (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus on nonfarm payrolls as of July 6 (blue+), industrial production (red), 2012 excluding transferred personal income (green), 2012 manufacturing and trade sales $ (black), consumption in 2012 (light blue), and monthly GDP in 2012 (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defines recession dates, peaks and valleys, shades of gray. Sources: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (published July 1, 2022), NBER, and author’s calculations.
