Weekly data through June 18 and June 25, and Google/Big Data through July 2, on the U.S. economy (follow up first part, the second part, the third part and the fourth part).
resource: Lewis-Mertens-Stock WEI, via Fredaccessed 7 July 2022.
resource: Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims Weekly State Economic Conditions Indicatorsas of June 25, 2022, accessed July 7, 2022.
resource: OECDaccessed 7 July 2022.
Tomorrow’s first reading of traditional monthly indicators – employment release from June. Bloomberg’s NFP consensus is +268 and private NFP is +240K. Assuming the May numbers are not revised, this is the trajectory of the NFP.
figure 1: Nonfarm Payrolls, May release (blue), April release (tan), March release (green), February release (red), and Bloomberg consensus as of July 7, assuming May release (pink squares) No revisions, all on 000’s, sa, log scale. Source: BLS via FRED, Bloomberg, author’s calculations.
The data we have as of June doesn’t seem to suggest a recession is here (while the consensus is 2023, maybe even the second half of 2022).
