At least someone Still believed this a few weeks ago.
Figure 1, top panel: GDP (black), GDO (tan), GDP+ (green), all in bn.Ch.2012$ SAAR. GDP+ is based on cumulative growth rates, scaled to Q1 2018. Bottom panel: Coincident index (blue), nonfarm payrolls (green), total hours per week (tan), civilian employment (red), vehicle miles traveled (purple), all in logarithmic form, Q4 2021 = 0. 4th quarter employment, hours worked observations based on October and November data. Lilac shading represents a hypothetical recession from peak to trough. Sources: BEA via FRED, BEA, Philadelphia Fed via FRED, Philadelphia Fed, BLS via FRED, FHA via FRED, and authors’ calculations.
Note that GDP, GDO and VMT are the three series that started to decline from 2021Q4. However, we know that GDP and GDO will then be revised (and GDP+ rise). (Recall that using the running two quarters rule for the current GDP data, we have Do not 2001 recession.) Note further that non-farm payrolls and total weekly hours may be revised upwards to account for preliminary benchmark revisions.
As such, I remain skeptical that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee will declare a recession in the first half of 2022. But since all variables will be modified in the future (with the possible exception of VMT), it is impossible to be sure.
