Saturday, May 23, 2026

So you think we’ve been in a recession since mid-August?


Weekly and daily readings prior to 8/13:

figure 1: Lewis-Mertens-Stock Weekly Economic Index (blue, left scale), OECD Weekly Tracker (tan, left scale), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims US Weekly Economic Conditions Index plus 2% trend (green, left icon), a major component of the first Google Mobility Trends (chartreuse, right scale).Source: NY Fed via Fred, OECD, Wisio, Google and the authors’ calculations.

Needless to say, most of these indicators point to continued growth through mid-August (the OECD WeeklyTracker shows a sharper slowdown from May to July). The first major component of Google Mobile Trends points to a plateau starting in May. The various Google Mobile Trends indices are shown in Figure 2.

figure 2: Google’s Mobile Trends Index for retail and entertainment (blue) grocery and pharmacy (tan), residential (purple), transit (red), parks (green), and workplace (dark gray), all with deviations from baseline. expressed as a percentage. resource: Google.

return, Initial jobless claims fall.



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