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Some reactions to the January employment situation release


Here's FoxBusiness' online report on employment (around 4 p.m. Central Time):

There was no mention of the jobs report. The title of an article I found in my search shows cognitive dissonance, “The United States is heading for a slow recovery, with 353,000 new jobs added in January: the economy is growing rapidly, but the Federal Reserve is still waiting for an interest rate cut.”. (The article doesn’t actually discuss what the economy is recovering from, or why the “recovery” will be slow.)

one more In-depth reactions from ZeroHedge (Also available today around 4pm Central Time):

I find this quote reminiscent of pure conspiracy theory Worth Zero Hedge:

… These revisions are explicitly designed to give the impression that the labor market is slowing down much less than it actually is.

The article continues:

This is almost entirely due to the seasonal adjustment of the BLS's latest selection, which has gone from merely laughable to a complete clown show, as the following comparison between revised BLS employment data and ADP employment data shows: The trend is clear: The Biden administration's data are now clearly rising even though the unbiased ADP (which records employment data directly at the company level, which is actually much more accurate) shows the economy is accelerating in slowing down.

Speaking of seasonal adjustments, January's numbers are all seasonal because while seasonally adjusted employment increased by 353,000, unadjusted employment fell by 2.635 million, or 3 million job gains.

Don't know why ZeroHedge kAbsolutely now While the ADP series provides check-cutting services only for companies that make up a portion of the U.S. economy, it more accurately records total private employment across the U.S. economy as a whole. Maybe, but maybe not.

I sympathize with the concerns about seasonal adjustment issues, especially after massive irregular flights like the 2020 pandemic.However, an examination of year-over-year changes in nonfarm payrolls data using seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted data shows that seasonal adjustments are not driving the results, as discussed in this article postal.

figure 1: Twelve-month nonfarm payroll employment change, January release (bold red), not seasonally adjusted, January release (lilac) and December 2023 (light red), both as logarithmic differences. Source: BLS and author's calculations.

The most interesting (shocking?) part of this article is here:

… As we enter the height of election season, the political conversation will swing left and right, especially against the backdrop of a deliberately engineered immigration crisis that the Biden administration hopes will bring in millions of new Democratic voters who, perhaps, the U.S. can Honduras or Guatemala hold presidential elections (after all, their citizens will illegally cast key votes in November), we find that the number of native-born workers fell sharply again in January, falling sharply from 560,000 to 12,980.7 Ten thousand. Adding in the December data, we find that the number of native-born workers fell by 1.9 million over the past two months, a near-record number!

Now, I think ZeroHedge is trying to equate new immigrants with non-native born people. However, non-native-born people include immigrants—most of whom are documented—who have lived here for years or even decades. I thought we were all Americans (if already naturalized). I think ZeroHedge has a different view.



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