The Bank of East Asia announced data today.From freed:
Durable goods manufacturing; professional, scientific and technical services; and information services are the main contributors to the country’s real GDP growth (Table 2). Accommodation and food services are the main reasons for Nevada’s growth. Accommodation and food services grew by 16.9% nationwide and contributed to growth in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
- The national durable goods manufacturing industry grew by 15.6% and contributed to the growth in 48 states. The industry is a major contributor to the growth of 24 states, including Utah, which is the second largest state in growth.
- Professional, scientific, and technical services nationwide increased by 11.8%, contributing to growth in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The industry is a major contributor to growth in the six states and the District of Columbia.
- Information services nationwide increased by 14.4% and contributed to the growth of all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The industry is the main contributor to Colorado’s growth, which ranks fifth in growth.
- The national non-durable goods manufacturing industry fell by 4.2%. The industry moderated real GDP growth in 36 states, of which Texas was the state with the smallest increase.
Overall, the country is close to its peak level in the fourth quarter of 2019; however, there are large differences.
figure 1: GDP is relative to 2019Q4 GDP; darker shades indicate higher ratios. Entering 0.06 means that the GDP of the first quarter of 2021 is 6% higher than that of the fourth quarter of 2019. Source: BEA and author’s calculations.
Hawaii topped the list with 7.9%, and Utah was at the bottom with -3.9%.
The growth rate in the first quarter is also very different. The following is the annualized rate.
figure 2: Annual GDP growth rate, 2021Q1. Darker shades indicate faster growth. Entering 0.11 means that the annualized growth rate is 11%. Source: BEA and author’s calculations.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the fastest growth in Nevada was 10.9%, and the slowest growth was 2.9% (Washington, DC).
How recovery is related to vaccination rates. The following is a map of vaccination rates:
Figure 3: Part of the vaccination rate, %. Darker shades indicate higher ratios. source: American facts (As of June 24, 2021), and the author’s calculations.
The highest partial vaccination rate is in Vermont (73%), and the lowest is Mississippi (36%).
It turns out that greater recovery is associated with higher partial vaccination rates (using first quarter GDP, as shown in Figure 1)-and statistically significant, using robust regression (slope = 0.056). (The relative GDP outliers of Hawaii and Wyoming have declined, and OLS shows a significant positive correlation, in which a higher vaccination rate of 1 percentage point is correlated with a higher relative GDP level of 0.05 percentage point).
Figure 4: The relationship between GDP in the first quarter of 2021 relative to the fourth quarter of 2019 and partial vaccination rates (blue dots) and nearest neighbor fit (brown line). Source: Bank of East Asia, American facts (As of June 24, 2021), and the author’s calculations.
Obviously, this is relevant; there are no control variables (such as economic structure, initial GDP per capita, etc.), and no endogenousness is considered. Nonetheless, the fact that this correlation is so easy to appear is interesting.