About four months after the president took office Joe Biden Announce All U.S. troops will return home from Afghanistan before September 11, and most of the headlines surrounding this decision are grim, if not completely depressing.Although most Americans Support exitThis is inevitable, and the elimination of the best combat forces on the planet will adversely affect the ability of the Afghan government to maintain itself.Today’s report on Afghanistan focuses on the terrible security situation in Kabul, the attack from the Taliban. Into southern Afghanistan To hundreds of Afghan troops Escape their post.
However, the current narrative is highly inclined to be negative. The strategic interests of the United States in its delay in withdrawing troops from Afghanistan have not been taken into consideration at all. By letting Afghanistan relax, the United States is reversing the situation, forcing the country’s close neighbors to assume more responsibility for Afghanistan’s security and development than before.The U.S. is actually making Afghanistan Other people’s problems And push it to those who have greater interests in managing it.
Critics of the Biden administration’s decision will certainly object to this highly sinister description, as if the United States deliberately threw Afghans to wolves. But after 20 long years on the hamster wheel, the reality is clear. The evidence is overwhelming: Despite spending trillions of dollars in taxpayers’ money, and at one point deploying nearly 100,000 soldiers in the war, American armies There is no way to solve the systemic problems that have plagued Afghanistan from the beginning.
If the US military presence in Afghanistan has created any winners in the past 20 years, it would be Russia, China, and Iran.All three countries can complain about Washington Harmful effects In South Asia, at the same time benefiting from the US investment there. Although Moscow and Beijing are eager to point the finger at the United States, they are also willing to stand on the sidelines, because multiple US governments have tried to stabilize a country with various terrorist organizations (such as the Islamic movement). Uzbekistan and East Turkistan Islamic Movement), they are more interested in attacking Russia and China than in the United States. The United States finds itself in an absurd position, taking on most of the work and most of the responsibilities at the same time.
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Fortunately, the withdrawal of American troops will eliminate this absurdity. As the U.S. military no longer assumes heavy responsibilities in Afghanistan, Russia, China, and Iran are now faced with a serious choice: either make arrangements with their unstable neighbors, or risk watching Afghanistan’s own security problems spread to you. Risk of the border.
Many countries have already made choices.Russia, own The shameful history of Afghanistan As we all know, it is Strengthen ties with the Taliban At the same time, it maintains formal diplomatic relations with the Afghan government.To ensure that the Afghan civil war does not begin to threaten the fragile stability of Central Asia, Moscow Also strengthening Its military base in Tajikistan is to help this poor and dependent Russian vassal state deal with any consequences that may be brought about by the intensified civil war between the Taliban and Kabul.replace Armed Taliban To make life more difficult for the US military in Afghanistan, the US withdrawal has forced Russia to participate more – not because it wants it, but because it needs it.The same is true for China, whose Receiving senior Taliban leaders Last week in Tianjin, China, the Communist Party of China admitted that it no longer has the good luck piggybacking on Washington.
Iran also has some decisions to make. There is a complicated history between Tehran and the Taliban.As early as the late 1990s, these two Almost went to war After Taliban militants attacked the Iranian consulate in Mazar-e-Sharif and killed 9 Iranian diplomats. In 2001, the Iranians used their contacts with the Northern Alliance’s anti-Taliban fighters and the efforts of the international community to establish an interim government in Kabul, which proved that the Iranians are very valuable to the United States’ actions against the Taliban.
However, the relationship between Iran and the Taliban has greatly warmed up since then.The Iranian government has Strengthened the relationship Working with some Taliban factions in western Afghanistan, to a large extent, provides a security buffer for any Islamic State organization that may happen to be operating near the Iranian border. The core relationship between Iran and the Taliban is entirely pragmatic, and may even be transactional, giving both sides advantages they did not have before. However, the withdrawal of the United States is likely to cause problems for work. Since the common enemy of the United States no longer operates on the territory of Afghanistan, Tehran and the Taliban lack the motivation to cooperate, and there is more reason to restore their traditional historical vigilance towards each other.There are disagreements within Iran’s political elite on how to manage Afghanistan and how far Tehran should support the Taliban faction Will also surface-Iranian officials never need to express courtesy because of the US military presence in neighboring countries.
None of this is particularly encouraging for Afghan civilians who might be swallowed up by Taliban atrocities and government inefficiency. The civil war in Afghanistan will continue into the far future. After all, since Jimmy Carter entered the White House, the country has been shrouded in war.Although U.S. Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad May hope The Taliban and Afghan government officials will find the maturity and dexterity of ending the war through diplomatic settlement, and we must be honest: the prospects for diplomatic success now do not look encouraging.
However, the President of the United States does not have endless time and endless resources. Difficult decisions must be made. Regardless of what you think about the decision to withdraw US troops, one thing is undeniable: the troubles in Afghanistan are no longer the responsibility of the United States.
Daniel R. DePetris is a researcher and foreign affairs columnist at Defence Priorities Weekly newspaper.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author.
