Today is Wednesday and there are some brief discussions and news, then some jazz, the latter being the highlight. I read an interesting research paper yesterday – Council for Economic Analysis (CAE) – This is a France-based organization that brings together professional researchers “to inspire government choices in economic affairs through comparative perspectives and analysis”. It operates under the authority of the French Prime Minister. Its latest public report— focus – series – Impact of COVID certificates on vaccinations, health outcomes and the economy (Published 18 January 2022) – Presents some very interesting empirical results related to the impact of Covid vaccination certificate enforcement on vaccination rates, health outcomes (short term) and GDP growth rates. I think the study (methods etc.) is credible and the results are consistent with a range of evidence presented by other researchers.
Impact of COVID certificates on vaccinations, health outcomes and the economy
I know a lot of people think the research results are being manipulated as part of a conspiracy (by whom?) and we can’t trust the data, and all the rest.
My point is that when a person presents results that don’t fit a particular point, you need to be careful with them.
But when many different researchers present results pointing in the same direction, it’s hard to keep the conspiracy alive.
While some researchers are liars, my experience is that most professional researchers are serious about their work, so the constant reinforcement of results gives a sense of confidence.
The research I cite in the introduction seems reasonable to me – because I understand the advanced statistical techniques being used and the dataset is verifiable.
They realize that the topic is controversial and that some object to the use of vaccine certificates on “moral and political” grounds.
There is room to debate this practice on these grounds.
But they try to enlighten us on several research questions related to the practice of vaccine certification:
1. Does the vaccine certificate increase the vaccination rate and reduce the hesitation rate?
2. Does the certificate affect health outcomes—hospitalizations and deaths?
3. Did the certificate reduce GDP losses from the pandemic?
Using counterfactual and synthetic control techniques, they found:
1. “It turns out that the impact of COVID credentials on vaccinations is considerable.”
2. “More precisely, we attribute 13.0 (95% CI 9.7-14.9) points (pp) for France, 6.2 (2.6-6.9) points for Germany and 9.7 (5.4-12.3) points for Italy Pass the COVID certificate for the incentives created.”
3. “In France and Italy, the overall effect is significant, but only in Germany from November 2021, when the use of COVID certificates is extended to the workplace.”
4. “The results are consistent with studies using cross-country or state comparisons to analyze the immediate period following interventions in different countries.”
5. “Importantly, the impact of COVID credentials on vaccination in the elderly population was also considerable.”
6. In terms of “probable hospitalizations and deaths from the declaration of the COVID certificate to the end of 2021”, they found that “in France, an additional 32,065 (26,566‐35,306) admissions would have occurred in Germany 5,229 (‐1,774‐6,822) and Italy 8,735 (2,999‐12,261). France had 3,979 (3,453‐4,298) new deaths, Germany 1,133 (‐312‐1358), and Italy 1,331 (502‐1,794). Therefore, from introduction to the end of 2021, Expected hospitalizations (and deaths) will increase by 31.3% (31.7%) in France, 5.0% (5.6%) in Germany, and 15.5% (14.0%) higher in Italy.”
7. “By the end of 2021, without policy intervention, weekly GDP would fall by 0.6 (0.5-0.8)% in France, 0.3 (0.1-0.4)% in Germany and 0.5 (0.3-0.6)% in Italy, by 2021 In the second half of the year, France’s GDP loss was 600 (590-610 million euros), Germany 140 (130-150 million euros) and Italy 2.1 (200-220 million euros).”
Altogether, for France, the Covid certificate saved 3,939 lives, increased vaccinations by 13% and reduced GDP losses by 6 billion euros.
For Italy, Covid certificates saved 1,331 lives, increased vaccinations by 9.7% and reduced GDP losses by 2.1 billion euros.
For Germany, Covid certificates saved 1,133 lives, increased vaccinations by 6.2% and reduced GDP losses by 1.4 billion euros.
They concluded that the certificate has:
…with a clear, strong positive impact on vaccination rates, health outcomes and economies in France, Germany and Italy.
Further questions remain (like what about Omicron) and why people don’t trust science.
But for now, these results are very interesting.
Real Progressives Recent Podcasts
A few weeks ago, I recorded a new podcast — Duality with Bill Mitchell – With the team at Real Progressives (the title is their choice).
It was quite a long meeting, but I thought the discussions were interesting.
You can download audio – here.
If you’re reading faster than you can listen, and can do without the sweet tones (-: then there’s also a full transcript of the discussion in the link above.
I thank Steve and the gang for making this possible. They deserve our support.
MMT update
A few things might be of interest.
MMTed MOOC – Modern Monetary Theory: Economics in the 21st Century
We can now offer the course again in early 2022 for everyone who has been asking me to have the opportunity to complete the program.
Please note that this is a repeat of our previous course offered in March 2020.
You are cordially invited to sign up for the edX MOOC – Modern Monetary Theory: Economics in the 21st Century – it’s free, 4-week course starting February 9, 2022.
This course is offered through the Newcastle University edX programme.
Get a proper understanding of MMT with tons of videos, discussions, and more.
for – More details.
Helsinki Lectures 2022
As part of my professorship at the University of Helsinki, I will be giving an annual lecture on MMT starting next week. This is a partnership between the University and MMTed.
Although these lectures are part of the university’s formal graduate program, I have been allowed to make them public as part of an outreach program.
The teaching plan will be:
- Tuesday, January 25, 2022 – Streaming public lecture (YouTube) starting at 10:15 Helsinki time.
- Wednesday 26 January – First Zoom Class Lecture – 08:15-09:45 Helsinki time.
- Thursday, January 27th – 2nd Zoom Lecture – 10:15-11:45 Helsinki time.
- Tuesday, February 1 – 3rd Zoom Lecture – 10:15-11:45 Helsinki time.
- Wednesday, February 2 – 4th Zoom Lecture – 08:15-09:45 Helsinki time.
- Thursday 3 February – Final Zoom Lecture – 10:15-11:45 Helsinki time.
I’ll post access details for the YouTube stream and Zoom link early next week.
I hope to meet some of you in “Classroom”.
Please help if you can
We still need a lot of sponsors to make sure we can run the educational program at a negligible cost and make sure it’s sustainable over time.
It would be great if you could continue to help. However, if your circumstances allow, we also appreciate one-time and small donations.
Please write to me for account details.
Please help if you can.
Music – Khan Jamal RIP
Here’s what I’ve been listening to this morning at work.
Musicians I loved when I was younger are now dying more and more often, which may also say something about my age.
January 10, 2022 Great ambient player who is also a great percussionist – Khanjamar — Died in Philadelphia at age 75.
He was a big part of the free jazz movement of the 1970s, and when I first started collecting his records (which were few and far between) with his band— voice of liberation and– Sun La Akstra.
The difference between Khan Jamal’s approach and the standard free jazz style is that he’s melodic – so in a band full of opposites, he’s a tonal soloist.
As I got to know him more and more, I discovered that he had strong ties to black art and the black consciousness movement, which led him to expand his range of instruments to cover West African sounds and patterns.
This track- known unknown – From the 1984 album (recorded 1982) – unlimited (Recorded in 1982).
Playing on this track are Dwight James (drums), Reggie Curry (bass), Bernard Sammoor (piano) and – Byard Lancaster (Sax).
Enough for today!
(c) Copyright 2022 William Mitchell. all rights reserved.
