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The blow to the Russian economy, an internal assessment


via Bloomberg “Russia privately warns of severe and long-term economic damage”:

Russia could face a longer and deeper recession as the impact of U.S. and European sanctions expands, hampering industries the country has relied on for years to thrive, according to an internal report prepared for the government.

From the article:

resource: Bloomberg, September 5, 2022.

BOFIT (September 2, 2022) Report:

Russia’s economy was supported by oil production and construction activity despite a slowdown in retail sales and many manufacturing sectors in July. A preliminary assessment by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development showed that GDP contracted by 4.3% year-on-year in July and 1.1% year-on-year in the first seven months of the year.

The distribution of impacts varies by sector, as shown in the graphs in the article. Both retail and manufacturing were hit hard (as expected). In a previous BOFIT article, they pointed out that divesting defense production would lead to a significant decline in manufacturing.

resource: BOFIT (September 2, 2022).

What are the recent forecasts. “Russia faces tougher economic outlook for the rest of the year” The outlook is summarized in a handy table showing various forecasts.

resource: BOFIT (September 2, 2022).

see also sound.



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