…increased by 1% every year [1].Their leading economic indicators edged up [2]. Justin Ho discusses their bright perspective friday market.
Interestingly, The Conference Board expects growth to be close to zero in the second to third quarter of 2024.This is related to Forecasting based on term distribution This indicates a high probability of a recession in the second quarter of 2024.
figure 1: GDP (bold black), CBO forecast (blue), Survey of Professional Forecasters (red), FT-Booth median forecast (brown inverted triangle), FOMC March 20 Economic Forecast Summary (open light green square), GDPNow on 3/19 (light blue square), The Conference Board as of March 21 (yellow green), all in bn.Ch.2017$. Source: BEA 2024 Q4 Edition 2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia SPF, Booth School, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (3/19), The Conference Boardand the author's calculations.
GDP's lower path relative to the SPF or FT-IGM survey median may be partly due to subdued levels of its leading economic indicator, which turned only marginally positive in February.
source: The Conference Board.
The Conference Board's literature suggests that the LEI turning point leads the GDP turning point by 7 months, in September 2024.
The Conference Board predicts that federal funds may decline, possibly due to lower expected growth.
figure 2: Federal funds rate (black), FOMC March 2024 SEP (light green square), Conference Board forecast (yellow-green), CME modal forecast as of March 23 (sky blue). Source: FRB via FRED, fast radio waves, The Conference Board, continuing medical educationand the author's calculations.
