The COVID prediction model predicts that there will be 100,000 deaths from the virus by December, and wearing a mask may halve

A national forecasting model predicts that by December 1, there will be nearly 100,000 COVID-19 deaths in the United States, but health experts suggest that if everyone wears a mask in public places, this number may be reduced by half.

This means that the future impact of the coronavirus on the population depends on the choices Americans make in the coming months.

Lauren Ancel Meyers, director of the University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium, said: “Behavior really will determine whether, when and how the current wave will fade away sustainably.” We cannot stop the development of delta, but we can change our behavior overnight.”

Meyers added that strengthening wearing masks, maintaining social distancing, isolation and vaccinations when sick will make a difference.

“These things are within our control,” Meyers said.

For more reports from the Associated Press, please see below.

This summer, the United States is in the fourth wave of infections, powered by the highly contagious delta variant, which has caused another surge in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, medical centers are overwhelmed, nurses burned and wiped out The progress in fighting the virus over the past few months.

The average daily death toll exceeds 1,100, and the time goes back to mid-March.one Influential modelThe University of Washington predicts that 98,000 Americans will die by early December, bringing the total death toll to nearly 730,000.

The forecast says that by mid-September, the death toll will rise to nearly 1,400 per day, and then slowly decline.

But the model also says that if Americans change their ways, many of these deaths can be avoided.

“Just wearing a mask, we can save 50,000 lives. This is the importance of behavior,” said Ali Mokdad, a professor of health indicators science at the University of Washington in Seattle, who was involved in the development of predictions.

There are already signs that Americans are taking this threat more seriously.

In the warnings about delta variants in the past few weeks, the decline in demand for COVID-19 lenses has reversed direction. In the past month, the number of vaccines vaccinated every day has increased by about 80%, reaching an average of about 900,000 vaccines.

The White House COVID-19 coordinator Jeff Zients said on Tuesday that in Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi, “the number of people who have been injected for the first time in the past month exceeds the previous The sum of two months.”

In addition, millions of students are required to wear masks.After the federal government gave the vaccine, more and more employers are asking their workers to be vaccinated PfizerFull approval was obtained earlier this week. Cities such as New York and New Orleans insist that people be vaccinated while dining in restaurants.

According to a report, half of American workers support vaccination in the workplace New poll From the Associated Press-NORC Public Affairs Research Center.

Early signs indicate that behavioral changes may have flattened the curve in several places where the virus has ravaged this summer.

An Associated Press analysis shows that the rate of new cases in Mississippi, Florida, Louisiana and Arkansas is slowing, and the first shots in some of these states are rising. In Florida, hospital requests and school anger over masks may prompt some people to take more precautions.

However, disturbing trends continue in Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia and Wyoming, and the number of new infections continues to rise steadily.

Mokdad said he was “disheartened” by the Americans not taking steps to control the virus.

“I don’t understand,” he said. “We are on fire, no one wants to deploy a firetruck.”

One explanation: Elizabeth Stewart of Johns Hopkins University said that the good news of spring—increased vaccination rates and declining cases—gave people a glimpse of the past. Bloomberg The School of Public Health, which makes it difficult for them to restore preventive measures that they believe have fallen behind.

“We don’t need to sit and wait completely,” she said, “but we can make some risk-reducing choices.”

Dr. Gaby Sauza, 30, of Seattle, said that even vaccinated people should be vigilant. He was vaccinated in the winter but tested positive for COVID-19 with other guests a few days after the Vermont wedding on August 14 Although the celebrations are mostly outdoors and participants must submit photos of their vaccination cards.

“In retrospect, I really wish I was wearing a mask,” she said.

Sauza is a pediatric resident. She will be absent from the hospital for two weeks and feel guilty for burdening her colleagues. She believes that the vaccine kept her infection under control, even though she suffered several days of body pain, fever, night sweats, fatigue, cough and chest pain.

“If we take action, we can contain this virus. If we don’t take action, this virus is waiting for us,” Mokdade said. “It will find the weak among us.”