This week, the Russian and Chinese troops Start a joint military exercise In the northwest of China. The exercise is expected to include ground and air forces, as well as a large number of Russian and Chinese officers who will learn how to operate simultaneously. China’s official Xinhua news agency said the exercise reflects the “new heights of China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership” that the two sides promised years ago.
The U.S. official in Washington is More and more worried Regarding the possibility of Russia and China joining forces to undermine the security interests of the United States in Eurasia.President of Russia Vladimir Putin And the chairman of China Xi Jinping Has been intimate for many years. Xi Jinping even described Putin as his “Best friends and colleagues. “Since 2013, the two heads of state have held dozens of meetings to expand the mainly transactional relationship in the past. Unsurprisingly, Putin and Xi Jinping’s deputies are following in their footsteps. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov Part of the speech with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in the bilateral meeting in March To rebuke The United States considers it to be an extraterritorial sanction against the interests of Russia and China.
In the military field, Moscow and Beijing are pooling resources and becoming more open in strengthening each other’s development and capabilities.include Nearly 80% In the past five years of China’s arms imports, Russia has been the main source of Beijing’s military equipment.China’s many domestic weapon systems Is a derivative Russian model.Putin has stated his intentions assist When China is developing a more effective anti-missile radar system, it has undoubtedly taken into consideration American ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. In addition to hardware, the Russian and Chinese armies have been conducting large-scale training exercises every year for the past decade.Moscow and Beijing may decide to share greater military intelligence with each other Cause an alarm In Washington, national security analysts are now debating how the United States can prevent the two countries from forming a formal security alliance.
So far, the Russian and Chinese governments have shown little interest in forming such alliances. Although security arrangements like NATO can strengthen deterrence in certain situations, they can also limit the flexibility of a country by linking the defenses of one country to another. Russia and China may be willing to promote mutually beneficial relations, but the worrisome history between the two major powers (the former Soviet Union and China were the main competitors for communist leadership during the Cold War) and the competition of interests in Central Asia and other places have pushed for formal transcendence. Horizon’s safe connection.
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Nonetheless, the possibility of Russia and China establishing an anti-American bloc alone is sufficient for American policymakers to at least adapt to it. If Moscow and Beijing follow this path, the global balance of power will change—not what Washington likes.Russia and China share a common economy US$28.2 trillion, More than the United States itself. The Russian-Chinese security alliance will allow the two countries to resolve each other’s tactical shortcomings, put pressure on the United States to expand its military resources to a greater extent to protect its allies in Europe and Asia, and force Washington to raise interest rates.astronomical $778 billion Defense budget. Although the Sino-Russian alliance is not a foregone conclusion, it will still be a reality with significant impact.
Unfortunately, US policies often prompt Chinese and Russian leaders to embrace each other.Sino-Russian Bilateral Trade Expected to reach 120 billion U.S. dollars By the end of the year, the secondary sanctions imposed by the United States on Russian entities had achieved results to a large extent, forcing Moscow to shift from the European market to diversification. The Biden administration’s tendency to ideologically equate competition with Russia and China (as a global competition between democracies and authoritarian countries) alienated allies who wish to maintain functional relations with these two powers and stimulated Washington. Anti-American groups that should be aimed to stop. In fact, the United States is proving to be its own worst enemy.
How to guard against the budding Russia-China alliance?Some people recommended the “reverse Nixon” strategy, and the United States sought Strip Russia closer to its camp Later, Moscow and China launched a broader confrontation. Although this strategy is attractive, if the United States tries to implement it, it will be a waste of time. Just because Vladimir Putin is not keen on reaching a formal joint defense commitment with Beijing does not mean that he is willing to let Russia sign a US-led campaign against China, which is Moscow’s stronger economic neighbor. country. This is especially true today, when US-Russian relations were at their lowest point in decades.
However, what the United States can do is stop making mistakes and adopt policies that inadvertently brought Russia and China closer together. This means avoiding sending ideological messages to Russia that would have an emotional impact on US-Russian relations and help poison the pragmatism that is usually required for successful cooperation on common interests. The United States should stop using sanctions as a crutch for its Russian policy. Facts have proved that sanctions not only cannot change Moscow’s behavior, but they will also increase Russia’s dependence on the Chinese market.The U.S. can also make it clear that it no longer supports NATOGo further enlarge, This is an open policy that currently has no security interests in Washington, but it will bring major risks-including Moscow’s consolidation of military relations with China in response.
US officials should not overestimate the friendship between Putin and Xi Jinping. But they shouldn’t simply treat this issue as a distant assumption, especially if Washington refuses to treat geopolitics smarter.
Daniel R. DePetris is a researcher and columnist at the Defense Priorities Think Tank Washington Examiner And contributors National interest.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author.
