- On July 19, England removed almost all restrictions. Subsequently, the number of Covid-19 cases fell sharply.
- Experts believe that warm weather, school closures and the end of the 2020 European Cup may be the reasons for the decline.
- But experts say that as students return to school and cold weather strikes, the number of cases may rise again.
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When British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that he would Remove almost all remaining restrictions In England on July 19, although Covid-19 cases continued to rise in the country, he attracted some Fierce criticism.
“Sadly, we must reconcile ourselves to deal with more deaths caused by the new coronavirus,” Boris Johnson warningOther countries, including the United Kingdom-with separate public health systems-have adopted significantly slower timetables.
But at about the same time that England was unblocked, the number of new cases per day began to plummet. This is contrary to the expectations of many experts.
Martin McKee, professor of European public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said: “This is a very rapid decline, and few people expected it.” Tell Bloomberg.
“Overall, it’s a bit mysterious.”
Our data world; insider
Football may have played a role in spiking
McGee said on Tuesday that although it is “really difficult” to know what caused the sharp increase in cases, it “seems to be related to the euro.”
The England football team reached the final in the highly anticipated championship game. From June 11th to July 11th, a large number of supporters celebrated their team in stadiums and bars. Hotbed of infection, hint WHO expert Express concerns.
McGee said that the end of the championship reduced the number of cases.
Wiktor Szymanowicz/Barcroft Media/Getty Images
Summer, warm weather, and personal nervousness about unlocking may cause rapid decline
The impact of lifting restrictions may not have been felt.A sort of Heat wave in the UK in JulyMcGee said that the result is that there may be fewer people drinking indoors.
People don’t seem to be sure to return to pre-pandemic habits.
In a survey of 3,784 adults from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) in the United Kingdom, 60% said they will continue to avoid crowded places.
McGee said that school closures during the holidays may also help reduce cases. “Schools seem to play a much larger role in communication than some people are willing to accept.”
Has herd immunity been achieved?Not too possible
Some experts believe that the UK may have achieved herd immunity, that is, when enough people are immune to infection, the virus cannot spread.
Almost 60% of the British population Have been fully vaccinated and many people have Immunity due to infection.
“You can run some very simple models to see if the number of cases we saw earlier this month is consistent with effective herd immunity,” Professor Mark Woolhouse of the University of Edinburgh, Tell the observer.
“There are some important caveats, but most importantly, these numbers are consistent with the effects of herd immunity,” he said.
McGee thinks this is “unlikely.” He pointed out that the number of cases in Israel is still on the rise, where vaccination levels are higher.
return People who have been vaccinated may get infected againMcKee said that although the risk of serious illness is greatly reduced.
Ian Forsyth/Getty Images
Some experts still don’t believe
Professor Tim Spector from King’s College London expressed doubts about the representativeness of these figures.
“The rate of descent is much faster than what we saw in previous waves,” he told British Broadcasting Corporation“Even after a complete nationwide lockdown, the accuracy of official statistics is doubtful.”
Spector led the Zoe Covid study, which tracked the symptoms of 4 million people worldwide.Although there is already Case reduction among UK study participants, It is not as sharp as government statistics.
expert Worrying that the problem will surface again in the fall, because the children are going back to school, and the winter weather in the UK forces people back indoors.
But all in all, it is currently difficult to know what the future holds for the UK.
John Edmunds, professor of epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told The Observer: “At this point, I think it’s really difficult to understand what has happened and what will happen in the long run.”
