From EIA and BEA NIPA:
source: From Forbes here.
Every wall street journalwe were pumping so much water that parts of Texas were buckling and swollen.
This is U.S. net petroleum product exports from NIPA (in U.S. dollars).
figure 1: U.S. net exports of petroleum products, in billions. USD, SAAR (blue, left axis), and share of US GDP (tan, right axis). NBER-defined recession peak-to-trough dates appear gray. Source: BEA, 2024 Q1 pre-release, NBER, and author's calculations.
From an economic perspective, increased production of petroleum products will not necessarily change the impact of oil price shocks on inflation (consumption per unit of GDP and the credibility of the central bank may play a greater role). However, as the United States becomes an increasingly larger exporter of petroleum products, higher oil prices have less of a negative impact on trade shocks. Furthermore, in terms of aggregate demand, the negative impact of higher oil prices will be smaller.
