Ural and Brent, as of today:
source: Trade Economic Network Date viewed: November 22, 2023.
The latest discount to Brent crude was around $17.75.
important? After all, Russia’s GDP hasn’t taken a huge hit (Of course, a large portion of GDP is now devoted to war production, so ex-military output growth in 2023 is negative 2% or less,). Do oil prices have anything to do with Russia’s ability to continue financing the war without resorting to (or even faster) inflation?from economistOctober 31st.
… After posting a 1.8 trillion ruble deficit in January, the government balanced the budget for the remainder of the year thanks to a 26% increase in non-oil and gas revenues. “In the third quarter of this year, our budget surplus exceeded 660 billion rubles,” Vladimir Putin boasted this month.
But the fiscal outlook is based on unreliable assumptions. The draft budget assumes that oil and gas revenues will increase by more than a quarter to 11.5 trillion rubles in 2024, with Brent crude oil prices expected to average $85 per barrel and Urals crude oil prices at $70 per barrel. If oil prices fall, revenue will fall below target. The budget also assumes a ruble-to-dollar exchange rate of about 90 in 2024. However, if the currency appreciates, revenue from oil and gas exports in ruble terms will fall, squeezing government revenue. gross domestic product Growth may also be lower than expected.The Treasury Department projects growth of 2.3% in 2024, more than double the 2024 rate International Monetary FundPrediction.
