as Paul Krugman notes,
“[Chinese President] Xi Jinping abruptly ended his signature “zero Covid” policy, All indications Pointing to a surge in hospitalizations and deaths that will push healthcare to the limit; the Chinese economy looks set to face major problems in the next two to three years”
From IHME, as of December 16, 2022:
resource: want to knowaccessed on December 24, 2022.
The question on my mind is how the Chinese authorities will respond as the number of infections and subsequent hospitalizations and deaths soars. Will they reimpose lockdowns, or will they try to muddle through by reopening. Either choice has implications for economic activity, exports and price movements in the rest of the world. Four days ago, the World Bank cut its growth forecast for 2022 to 2.7% (Reuters). This was close to Goldman Sachs’ 2.6% year-over-year growth forecast and slightly below the 3% consensus estimate.
