Today is Wednesday and today we discussed the latest inflation expectations data from the US which tells me that I think this event will be a temporary phenomenon, as opposed to the experience of the 1979s, which is reasonable, although I have been slammed for months. Data now shows that expected inflation has continued to decline across months, and the latest CPI shows that overall CPI pressures have eased. Easing will continue as supply chains return to pre-pandemic capacities. It is too early to say that the period of high CPI is over, but it does appear to be the case, with wages barely moving. Once we get that out of the way, I’ll provide some information on an interesting “golf” experiment and end with some great keyboard play.
The latest US CPI data released
Yesterday (September 13, 2022), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest – Consumer Price Index Summary – which seems to have sparked rather odd sentiments in world stock markets.
The fact is that while the annual inflation rate through August was 8.3%, or 0.2 percentage points reduce than the July results.
Inflation is falling.
The gasoline index, which has been driving the CPI up, fell 10.6% in August.
There is still some flow into food and other prices from past cost increases, but this will be temporary.
inflation expectations
The title of the New York Fed website – Consumer Expectation Survey – Explain everything.
The latest data (as of August 2022) is shown in the next chart Consumer Expectation Survey.
It shows inflation expectations for the next 1 and 3 years in the survey, and it is clear that the respective series have been falling sharply since May 2022 and June 2022.
Accompanying press release (September 12, 2022) – Inflation and house price expectations fall further – Note:
…inflation expectations continue to decline at all levels. Expectations of rising gas prices in the year ahead also continue to decline, with households now expecting gas prices to remain roughly the same a year from now…
Expectations of price changes over the coming year fell 1.4 percentage points (to 0.1%) for gas, 0.8 percentage points (to 5.8%) for food, and 0.3 percentage points (to 9.6%) for rent…
The median expected one-year earnings growth in August remained at 3.0% for the eighth straight month.
So wages are not driving anything.
The main supply-side effects driving inflation are expected to decline relatively sharply in the coming months.
The words that sum up all these trends and sentiments are: temporary.
Modern Monetary Theory: Economics MOOC for the 21st Century Closed and Running for the Third Time
MMTed edX MOOC – Modern Monetary Theory: Economics in the 21st Century – starts tomorrow, registration opens.
The 4-week free course will offer a range of learning modes – videos, written materials, interviews with many MMT staff, and more.
It is designed for beginners and provides participants with extensive information aimed at developing economic literacy.
More details:
https://www.edx.org/course/modern-monetary-theory-economics-for-the-21st-century
We very much look forward to your participation.
When job security is expressed as basic income
Scan the title of this article (September 12, 2022) – Irish government pays artists and musicians $330 ‘basic income’ allowance (Thanks to John for the link!), some would argue that the Irish government has fallen under the spell of the Basic Income Gang.
But when you really get into the details, the conclusion is that the government is actually introducing a sort of limited job security scheme for musicians, like I’ve been advocating for decades.
The policy (announced in January 2022) now provides a weekly salary of €325 for “artists” (musicians, artists, etc.).
This is not a “basic income” policy.
why not?
First, the recipient of the salary must work in exchange for cash.
First, they must “participate in a research project to determine the impact of payments”.
The minister in charge noted that recipients are “actively involved in the industry” and provide outputs that benefit “everyone”.
All that needs to be done now is for the Irish government to roll out the scheme and ensure that weekly wages are socially inclusive.
I’m a Republican – so not commenting on the Queen’s death
Australia just had a new head of state – some foreign king or other.
We didn’t choose him.
He doesn’t live here.
He could instruct his representatives to terminate the elected Australian government (this happened in November 1974).
He once thought that he could be a tampon and “live” in the pants of his then-illegal girlfriend (resource).
His brother was Jeffrey Epstein’s partner.
The rest – colonial atrocities etc.
In any case, no comment on the hysteria surrounding the death.
Golf and Sustainability
This may seem like an odd topic for this blog, but read on.
As a child, I grew up on a housing council (government provided low income housing) estate in Melbourne and I used to spend a lot of time on the East Malvern golf courses which are run by the local council and offer opportunities to play for workers class of people.
Golf in Australia is fairly egalitarian in that there are exclusive private clubs, but there are also many “public” courses where anyone can play for a relatively low cost.
I was fascinated by this game – the physics and geometry puzzles it offered and the effective wiggling action were nothing like what you’d think when you read the manual.
So I played a lot when I was a kid.
These public courses are now under attack from developers and high-income citizens who have moved into traditionally working-class suburbs and gentrified them.
Developers hope to build more energy-poor houses on the land, filling it with roofs and concrete so they can make a quick profit.
Gentlemen want the land to open up so they can walk their dogs and do other things while the huge SUV is parked nearby.
That sentiment intensified during the 2020 and 2021 lockdowns, when golf was banned in many states and the public took over golf courses as part of their allowed 2-hour outdoor workouts.
We’ve seen a series of moves to close these classes.
This Carbon Brief article (August 25, 2022) – Factcheck: Is solar a ‘threat’ to UK farmland? – Also pushes the anti-golf movement into the ambient space.
We read about plans to build solar farms in the UK:
Even the government’s plan to significantly scale up solar in line with its net zero target is expected to make it only 0.3% of the UK’s land area. This equates to about 0.5 percent of the land currently used for farming, or about half the space occupied by a golf course.
They provide this graph to illustrate their point.
I wonder what the comparison would look like if land owned by the British royal family was included?
So-called – Crown Estate – The total area is about 6.6 billion acres, accounting for about 1/6 of the world’s total land (resource).
I still play the game anyway, but my sense of urgency has increased given the environmental factors – overwatering, using chemicals, etc.
So I’m interested in reading this article (which is the focus of the project here) – Baa for the course: Golf club that shares fairways with sheep (27 Aug 2022).
The article reports that a sustainability experiment is underway at a public golf course in Melbourne, Victoria.
The course includes:
…a novel ecological experiment has been carried out that proponents say could have far-reaching implications for clubs and parks and gardens in Australia.
Course staff are adopting biotechnology:
…eliminate artificial chemicals and replace them with microbes that live within plant roots.
They use:
… a herd of ruminants to maintain the non-playing area of the golf course (approximately 10 hectares out of a total of 23 hectares). The animals are from Strong Heart Animal Sanctuary, which relocates animals surrendered by farms.
So the 10 hectares don’t need a tractor/mower anymore and the killed animals are gleefully eating.
important:
They eat the leaves, which pass through their four stomachs and turn into feces containing microbes.
It is then used as fertilizer along with other compostable materials by saving “kitchen waste” etc. and maintaining worm farms and “aerated composting systems”.
Currently, course managers are transitioning greens etc. to deal with this new organic material.
The spokesman said, “We need to cut the grass”!
So, if the experiment is successful, it could dramatically change the future of golf course management.
Front!
Music – Jackie Mitto
Here’s what I’ve been listening to this morning at work.
It comes from the legendary keyboard player – Jackie Mito – Who is one of my favorite organ and piano players.
He was a Jamaican ska star who died of cancer at the age of 42, before his full potential was reached.
Like many Jamaicans, he emigrated to one of the wealthier Commonwealth countries (Canada) and died there.
But what he left behind was magic.
He was a founding member of the famous band – Skatarts – and Music Director of Clement ‘Coxsone’ Dodd’s – studio one – Record company.
A commentator summarizing Jackie Mittoo’s contribution said (resource):
Without Jackie Mittoo…there would be no reggae. He was an integral part of the Skatalites and the creator of the entire rock stable. The evolution from rock stable to reggae is Jackie Mittoo. He really created reggae, and even the piano jerk on rock stable bassline dem, was Jackie Mittoo. I don’t know if we can give back what Jackie Mittoo has done for Jamaican music.
quite a statement.
This track- drum music – Released on 1968 album (Track 12) – night time By Jackie Mittoo and Soul Supplier.
Soul Vendors was Clement Dodd’s studio band that later became “Sound Dimension”. It includes all the great players of the time —
1. Roland Alfonso – Tenor saxophone.
2. Johnny “Dizzy” Moore – Small size.
3. Lloyd Brevitt – Small size.
4. Hector “Rabbit” Williams – drum.
5. Errol Walters – bass.
This is Rocksteady at its best. I could cruise all day listening to this.
Enough for today!
(c) Copyright 2022 William Mitchell. all rights reserved.
