That is Stephen Moore, June 27, 2022. He further noted: “Moore mentioned the gross domestic product data on Monday, noting that “growth has been negative in the first six months of the year. ” This was the data at the time.
figure 1: Nonfarm employment employment includes preliminary baseline (dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), 2017 personal income excluding transfers (green), 2017 manufacturing and trade sales$ (black), Consumption of monthly GDP (pink) and GDP (blue bars) in Ch.2017$ (light blue), 2017, Ch.2017$ in 2017, all logarithms normalized to 2021M11=0. Light gray represents the recession hypothesized by Stephen Moore and Steven Kopitz. Source: BLS via FRED, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics preliminary benchmarksFederal Reserve, BEA 2023Q2 released for the third time, fully revised, S&P Global/IHS Markit (Nigerian macroeconomic consultant, IHS Markit) (10/2/2023 release) and the author’s calculations.
The key indicators of the NBER BCDC are employment and personal transfer income. The former continued to grow throughout 2022H1.
I doubt there will be a recession in the first half of 2022. Note that GDO and GDP+ show smaller, if any, declines in the first half of 2022.
