Activity still appears to be picking up on a year-over-year basis. Shown below are the Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) WEI, Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker and Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index for the United States as of a week ago (September):
figure 1: Lewis-Mertens-Stock (New York Fed) Weekly Economic Index (blue), Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims US Weekly Economic Conditions Index plus 2% trend (Green) Shades of lilac indicate hypothetical H1 recession dates.Source: NY Fed via Fred, OECD, Wisioand the authors’ calculations.
A WEI reading of 3.2 for the week ended 9/3 could be interpreted as a quarterly growth rate of 3.2% if the 3.2 reading continued throughout the quarter. The OECD Weekly Tracker reading of 4.2 translates to an annual growth rate of 4.2% through 9.3.This Baumeister et al. The 1.4% reading was interpreted as beating the long-term trend growth rate of 1.4%. The average growth rate of US GDP from 2000-19 was about 2%, so that would imply an annual growth rate of 3.4% through 9/3.
Since these are year-over-year growth rates, we may be in a recession in the first half because an observer It was suggested a few weeks ago (the period is highlighted in a lavender shade), but seems unlikely.
