Below is the Lewis-Mertens-Stock Weekly Economic Index (NY Fed) and OECD weekly tracking, covering data through August 20.
image 3: Lewis-Mertens-Stock Weekly Economic Index (blue), OECD Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims US Weekly Economic Conditions Index plus 2% trend (green) Lilac shading represents hypothetical H1 Recession date.Source: NY Fed via Fred, OECD, Wisioand the authors’ calculations.
If the reading of 2.8 continued throughout the quarter, the WEI reading of 2.8 for the week ended August 20 could be interpreted as a quarterly growth rate of 2.8%. An OECD weekly tracking reading of 2.6 can be interpreted as a y/y growth rate of 2.6% for the year ended August 20 (note that the tracker reading prior to the August 6 Tracker has been revised to 1.1, so the Compared to the week ending 8/6 to 8/20 with a noticeable jump).This Baumeister et al. The 2.1% reading for the week ended June 25 was interpreted as beating the long-term trend growth rate of 2.1%. The average growth rate of US GDP from 2000-19 was about 2%.
