Weekly indicators from the Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) weekly economic indicators and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI and Woloszko (OECD) weekly trackers compared to monthly GDP as of February 4, 2023 Compare.
figure 1: Lewis-Mertens-Stock weekly economic index (blue), OECD weekly tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims U.S. weekly economic conditions index plus 2% trend (green), and IHS Markit monthly GDP ( blue bar).Source: New York Fed via fred, OECD, WECI, IHS Markit/S&P Globaland the author’s calculations.
The Weekly Tracker has rebounded sharply, dipping into negative territory for the week ended 11/26 and now surpassing WEI (1.0%) and WECI+2% (2.2%). A WEI reading of 1.0% for the week ending 2/4 could be interpreted as a 1.0% YoY increase if the 1.0% reading persisted throughout the quarter. Baumeister et al. A reading of 0.16% was interpreted as a growth rate of 0.16% above the long-term trend growth rate. US GDP growth averaged around 2% over the period 2000-19, so this implies an annual growth rate of 2.16% through 2/4. The OECD weekly tracking index reading of 3.4% can be interpreted as a year-on-year growth rate of 3.4% as of 14 January 2014.The 95% interval for the US Weekly Tracker is [1.9%, 4.9%].
