from House and Pugliese by WF Nowadays:
- The strong growth in non-farm payrolls appeared to be at odds with other signs that the job market was starting to deteriorate. …
- However, the job market has barely collapsed. An overall look at the data suggests that the labor market is weakening in a directional way, but at a slow pace and from a very strong start. Not only are demand signals still strong on an absolute basis, but job turnover remains high and the unemployment rate remains very low at 3.7%.
It includes several charts that support the view of job growth/unfavorable labor market conditions in the first half of 2022.
Here is the labor market heat map with 2022H1 circled in red.
resource: Wells Fargo (January 5, 2023).
The strength highlighted in green/yellow certainly does not mean a recession will start in the first half of 2022.
The authors do note that the labor market is cooling, possibly faster than agency surveys indicate – conveying a view on the labor market current appearance.
