reader steven corbett Asked me to “show us the math” on why multiple job gains don’t explain most of the difference between 2022M03 to 2022M11 net job creation. here is:
figure 1: The difference in net job creation of the non-farm employment series minus the civilian employment series since 2022M03 (dark blue), the increase in multiple employment since 2022M03, assuming workers increase from one job to two (green), from one Increased to three jobs (sky blue), all in 000s, seasonally adjusted. The multiplexing series are BLS series LNU02026625, LNU02026631. Source: BLS from FRED and authors’ calculations.
In order for multiple workers to account for the full variance, each worker who had a job in 2022M03 must take on an additional 13 jobs by 2022M11. This seems unlikely. Just saying ‘.
Personally, I believe more Errors Measured Mainly – But Not Exclusively – in Household Surveys.
