The Wisconsin Department of Revenue issued Newest Economic forecast Thursday.
The number of non-agricultural employment and the outlook for July and March 2021:
figure 1: Non-agricultural employment numbers released in June (blue), forecast economic outlook for July 2021 (released in August) (cyan squares), March 2021 (small brown squares), the author is based on the logarithmic first-order difference model For the forecast, use the national employment (big light blue) square), all are 000, seasonally adjusted. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wisconsin State Revenue Service, And the author’s calculations.
The number of non-agricultural employment in June was slightly lower than the DoR’s forecast for the second quarter, with an annual growth rate of 4.6%, much lower than a year ago (47.1%), but still higher than in recent months. 4.6% is slower than the national rate of 7.3%.
The unexpected increase in the number of non-agricultural employment in the country announced yesterday on the employment situation in June indicates that Wisconsin is expected to achieve its July third quarter forecast.The light blue square is my prediction based on the regression of the first-order difference logarithm WIsconsin NFP to the first-order difference logarithmic U.S. NFP for the same period
It is important to review the duality of the recovery, especially the employment of high-touch service industries is still more sluggish than commodity production. The recovery in the leisure and hospitality industry (a broader category of accommodation and food services than I usually draw) seems to have stalled (based on seasonally adjusted numbers), so it seems difficult to meet the third quarter forecast. In contrast, the number of manufacturing employment has returned to rise, so it seems likely to match the forecast for the third quarter.
figure 2: The Wisconsin manufacturing employment data released (blue) and the July 2021 economic outlook forecast (released in August) (cyan squares) are both 000, seasonally adjusted. Source: BLS and DWD.
image 3: The Wisconsin leisure and hospitality industry employment release (blue) and the July 2021 economic outlook forecast (released in August) (cyan squares), both in units of 000, are seasonally adjusted. Source: BLS and DWD.
Employment in the manufacturing sector in June was 1.0% lower than the level in February 2020, while leisure and hotel services fell by 20.8% (seasonally adjusted), logarithmic.
GDP looks likely to be close to the predicted level.
Figure 4: Wisconsin GDP (blue), the forecast (cyan square) from the July 2021 economic outlook (released in August), the author’s forecast based on the error correction model model, using the national GDP (light blue large square), all with Billions of U.S. dollars in 2012, Thrall. Source: BLS, DWD, Wisconsin Department of Revenue and author’s calculations.
Please note that employment and GDP are lagging indicators. Baumeister et al. Developed a Weekly Economic Condition Index (WECI) for state-level economies. Wisconsin’s growth rate at the end of July was about 3.4% or more trend American growth.
Figure 5: Baumeister et al. The weekly economic status indicators for the United States (black) and Wisconsin (red) are the percentage deviations from the annual trend national growth rate. The NBER recession date is gray, from early February to the end of April. source: Weekly state-level economic status, Visit 8/6, NBER.
Since March 2019, the Wisconsin Department of Revenue has issued nine reports on economic outlook and/or forecast updates.It also established a Data visualization page for economic data. Compared with the Walker government, No such reports were issued between May 2015 and the end of his second governmentIn other words, Scott Walker set the standard for data suppression.
