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WisGOP cannot be counted | Economy Browser


from a WisGOP Statement on Governor Evers’ State of the State Address.

“From recession to cheering for DEI, Governor Tony Evers has dragged Wisconsin down during his tenure. Wisconsinites know our state can do better than Evers' failed policies and lackluster vision.” — WisGOP Chairman Brian Schimming

background

  • Wisconsin GDP declines Three consecutive quarters of decline in 2023. It was one of only six U.S. states to see second-quarter GDP growth decline.

Apparently the Wisconsin Republican Party doesn't know the definition of a recession (and/or who declares it at the state level), nor can they reconcile the fact that according to the cited article, only a quarter of Wisconsin's GDP is reported, so 2023 It is impossible for annual GDP to have negative growth for three consecutive quarters.

Below is the data available since December 27.

figure 1: Wisconsin GDP, billions, 2017 seasonally adjusted (SAAR) (blue). Source: BEA, December 27, 2023.

Judging from the current data, GDP has been announced for three quarters, and there is no negative growth for three consecutive quarters. As of the third quarter, Wisconsin GDP was 0.5 percentage points higher than the fourth quarter of 2022.

Other indicators (not cited by WisGOP) were more positive.

figure 2: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), civilian employment (tan), real wages and salaries, deflated by the National Chain Consumer Price Index (tan), GDP (red), consensus index (green), all Data are expressed in logarithms, November 2021 = 0. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, and author's calculations.

For the week ended December 30, the Baumeister-Leiva Leon-Sims WECI index was 0.55 percentage points above trend. Real GDP growth averages about 1% over the five years to 2022, suggesting annual growth through 2023 of 1.55%.



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