It shouldn’t be like this.
President Joe Biden Should have ushered in the age of adult power again, Donald Trump Scandals continue one after another, and the president seems to thrive in chaos.
However, after the failed withdrawal from Afghanistan caused Biden’s poll numbers to continue to decline, coupled with the continued hard fight against COVID-19 and Delta variants, the situation has further deteriorated. Democratic Party Worried that next year’s midterm elections will fail.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s data, Biden’s approval rate is 45%, and the disapproval rate is 49%.These figures closely reflect Bill ClintonAt the same moment during his presidency, it was worse than Obama’s 2009 figures.
Why is this important?
Because Clinton lost 54 seats in the House of Representatives, while Obama lost 63.
A Democratic strategist explained Weekly newspaper The party has no room for error, because their majority in the House of Representatives is very small-only eight seats.
The strategist said that if Biden’s approval rate is 51%, the party will be “competitive” in the midterm elections. If his approval rate is 53%, the party will achieve good results but is prepared to lose. House of Representatives and Senate If he is 49% or less.
“The Republican Party in the swing zone is three to four percentage points more than the national poll,” the source said. “If Biden is five to six points behind in the swing zone, the Democrats will lose 30, 40 or 50 seats.”
These thought-provoking calculations are part of the reason why fragile Democrats or so-called frontliners have cooled Biden’s large and bold progressive agenda, including a $3.5 trillion in infrastructure and social spending components. Package plan.
In a column in the Wall Street Journal last week, the senator Joe Manchin Calling for a “strategic suspension of budget reconciliation legislation”, the Democratic Party can pass by a simple majority.
Manchin cited the cost of the plan as a reason for his potential opposition.
“The Democratic congressional leader is now proposing to pass the largest single-spending bill in history, regardless of rising inflation, severe debt shortage, or the inevitability of future crises,” Manchin wrote, adding that ignoring the fiscal consequences of policy choices would have The “disastrous” future of the next generation of Americans.
On Tuesday, Axios reported that Manchin would only support a package of US$1 trillion to US$1.5 trillion.
Another frontline member, representing Henry Cuellar (Henry Cuellar) told Weekly newspaper He hopes to work with Biden and the leadership of the Democratic Party to support children and families, tackle climate change, surpass China and fill the gap in Medicaid coverage. But he made it clear that he supported his terms.
One condition is a provision suggested by Cuellar, “ensure that the House of Representatives does not vote on anything that all 50 senators and vice presidents cannot support, including everyone from there. Bernie Sanders To Qiao Manqin,” he said. “As Blue Dog, we are studying how to solve the deficiencies in this work, and as we complete this process, we certainly want to make sure that we do this in a thoughtful and transparent way. “
The Democratic strategist responded to the current difficulties of a large tent party that must move forward carefully without causing stumbling and losing a majority of seats.
“Biden faces more challenges.’What is the reason for doing all this now?'” the source asked. “When the COVID was not defeated and they were struggling in Afghanistan, what is the compelling logic for now to say’choose one for the team’ to people who are afraid of being re-elected?”
A senior Democrat told Weekly newspaper Frontline members are naturally “nervous about many things.”
“So if Biden’s decline in the polls makes them nervous about signing progressive legislation, I wouldn’t be surprised,” the Democrat said, then blamed the moderates. “As a political party, the worst thing you can do is to make a bunch of promises to people without fulfilling them. This is usually worse for you, because then your own people will lack inspiration and will not show up. I hope we will not fall into that trap.”
This argument was endorsed by the progressives who spoke with them Weekly newspaper, Take the President of Way to Win, Tory Gavito, whose network of progressive donors raised $50 million for the 2020 election. The organization is deeply rooted in Texas politics and voters in the state, and conducted an investigation with the Democratic research company EquisLabs, saying that the headlines of 2020 are not what moderates like Cuellar think. .
“In Texas, the question is not too left or too right, nor radical or conservative. The headline is,’What have you done for me lately?'” she said. “The situation has not changed sufficiently after the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Cuellar is using his position of power to prevent any form of progress, such as infrastructure spending that benefits his community.”
Progressive people are striving for it.
Weekly newspaper Obtained a copy of a letter written by the Institute for Policy Studies signed by 50 organizations, which was scheduled to be issued on Thursday morning, which requested Congress Through a US$3.5 trillion plan, the plan will expand the tax credit for children, ensure that all workers enjoy 12 weeks of paid family and sick leave, provide universal preschool, reduce environmental pollution and protect communities from climate disasters.
The letter pointed out that lawmakers want to pay for these investments in full, and should not affect the size or scope of the package, because Congress can easily raise more than $3.5 trillion in revenue from businesses and wealthy people, and their profits and net assets have soared. For decades.
The letter said: “During the pandemic, the wealth of the country’s 708 billionaires alone increased by US$1.8 trillion, or 62%, enough to cover half of the ten-year cost of the US$3.5 trillion package.”
Another expert told Weekly newspaper Moderates ignore the American public.
“The truth of the matter is that moderates need to stop trying to play four-dimensional chess, and they need to really listen to what the Americans are telling them,” Brad Bowman, former executive director of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, told Weekly newspaper“They don’t want the Democrats to adopt the light-party approach of the Republicans in the 90s. These rules are dead. They want to see the federal government play an active role and invest in their lives, and stop playing this game, saying they can’t afford it. “
Bowman said that after many Democrats support the continuation of a two-trillion-dollar 20-year war in Afghanistan, the fiscal debate is particularly painful.
But the Democratic strategist warned that the party must be very cautious when selling any spending plans, arguing that progressives “have no discipline” in their remarks about Bernie Sanders’ negotiating bill, and that “this matter seems to be the more It’s on the left, we have lost more seats.”
“The barbarians are inside the walls,” the Democrat said Republicans Desperately control the House of Representatives. “For progressives, it would be crazy to spend an extra $1 billion and lose 40 to 50 seats. You want me to sell something I can’t sell, but if you say so, then progressives will answer Say you are a coward.”
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