The Netherlands Customs and Border Protection statistics world trade volumes. This is a comparison of the series of total world trade since 2000 with total industrial production (output weighted).
figure 1: World trade (blue) and world industrial production (tan), both at 100 in 2010, with peak-to-trough dates for the US recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) shaded gray. Orange dashed lines indicate announcements of Section 201 and 301 actions. source: U.S. Customs and Border ProtectionAugust 25, 2023.
Here are the details of how trade has evolved over the past two and a half years.
figure 2: World trade (blue) and world industrial production (tan), 2010 annual average = 100, seasonally adjusted Source: U.S. Customs and Border ProtectionAugust 25, 2023.
Note that these numbers are in quantities, while many are in nominal terms. The data for June was released two weeks ago and is now September.In principle, we can now use other indicators (such as container traffic volumes, individual country data, etc.) to predict the September data, such as Chin, Meunier, and Stampner (2023) [blogpost, SUERF nehwsletter].
