A sort ofAfter the decline in humiliation from state institutions to electors, an old party with aging members was led by a politician with all the charm of a middle-level bank employee. The obituary of the German Social Democratic Party (SPD) has been written.
However, as the German campaign is about to enter its home court, Olaf Scholz’s center-left party is enjoying strong vitality as its competitors are starting to fall behind.
The last five polls released last week showed that the Social Democratic Party surpassed the Green Party, which is expected to become the top contender in the spring. In a survey published on Sunday by the polling agency INSA, since the spring of 2017, the SPD and the outgoing Prime Minister Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Alliance have had the same votes, with both parties receiving 22% of the votes.
Under Germany’s proportional voting system, even if his party lags behind the CDU, Schultz may become the next prime minister—his great idol Helmut Schmidt succeeded in doing this in 1976. According to current public opinion surveys, this will require the Social Democratic Party to rule out the possibility of joining the conservatives to form an alliance with the Christian Democrats and the Liberal Democrats, and persuade the pro-business and anti-tax FDP to join the power-sharing agreement with the Social Democrats and the Green Party.
If Scholz’s name appears on the September 26 ballot, instead of the name of his party, he is already the undisputed front-runner: in a survey released last week, 41% of respondents Said that if they could, they would directly vote for him as prime minister. In contrast, only 16% chose Merkel’s designated center-right successor Armin Laschet, and 12% chose Green Party candidate Annalena Baerbock (Annalena Baerbock).
The struggle between the two former front-runners is the most obvious factor explaining the revival of the Social Democratic Party. The political scientist Gro Niugbauer of the Free University of Berlin said: “Schultz’s current strength is mainly due to the weakness of his competitors.”
Neither Baerbock nor Laschet have served as ministers at the national level, and their approval ratings have shrunk because the voting public has the opportunity to examine their characters more closely and imagine that they will replace Merkel. Both seem prone to gaffes.
Schultz, the current Minister of Finance, the former Minister of Labor and the Mayor of Hamburg, also barely shined in the election campaign. But this reticent northerner, once nicknamed “Scholzomat” because of his monotonous expression, did nothing wrong.
However, the Social Democratic Party’s election campaign went smoother than many expected. Schultz, from the right wing of the party, was nominated as the party’s candidate for prime minister, even though the party is run by two politicians on the left. In fact, just a year and a half ago, Schultz lost to Norbert Walter Boljans and Saskia Esken in the competition for leadership within the party.
During the election campaign, the two wings demonstrated a convincing performance of the truce within the party. At the UFA film studio in Berlin last week, Scholz played with Kevin Kühnert, the former SPD leader of the Left-wing Al-Shabaab. Kühnert launched a rebellion in 2018 to prevent his party from forming an alliance with the CDU.
Kühnert has always advocated the collectivization of large German companies such as BMW, but he insisted on his own script and expressed doubts about the referendum scheduled to be held in the German capital on the same day as the national referendum in order to expropriate large corporate owners.
In return, Schultz adopted a policy favored by the traditional left as one of his campaign’s benchmark promises: raising the minimum hourly wage from 9.50 euros (8.15 pounds) to 12 euros (10.30 pounds) in the first year.
This policy will only affect 1.4 million people and may not express his deepest convictions. “The traditional view of the Schultz centrist is to redefine social justice as social mobility,” said Anke Hassel, a professor of public policy at the Herty Institute in Berlin.
Hassel said: “The state only provides a safety net, as it can help people improve through education.” “The current position of the Social Democratic Party is more moderate: we will ensure that those who cannot move upward will not be left out.”
But promises such as a minimum wage of 12 euros and a new 1% wealth tax have also allowed the center-left movement to obtain the kind of unforgettable gains that the CDU has so far lacked. Insiders in the Social Democratic Party say that supporting Germany’s social safety net is very popular with voters—the problem is that Angela Merkel has been crediting SPD for such policies for the past 16 years.
To be a direct or indirect winner after the September vote, Schultz needs to convince vacillating voters that he not only cares about the laggards, but also understands the needs of Europe’s largest economy. “The CDU knows nothing about the economy,” he said in an uncharacteristically loud voice on stage in Berlin’s Tempelhof district last week.
As someone who has hardly challenged German fiscal orthodoxy during his four-year tenure at the Ministry of Finance, Schultz may be more qualified for this job than his competitors: polls show that even among FDP voters, he is also the prime minister. The first choice. It is free in society but conservative in finance.
“In the past, German voters had a prejudice that the Social Democrats could not be trusted with money,” Neugebauer said. “Schultz undoubtedly reduced his party’s reputation for profligacy.”
However, one survey after another shows that most voters still believe that Merkel’s CDU can best deal with economic issues and ensure their financial status.
“At the moment, Scholz may look like the one-eyed among blind people,” Neugebauer said. “But in Germany, voting behavior is traditionally not determined by individuals rather than political parties.”
