European-Russian relations (again) bottomed out – EURACTIV.com

Welcome to the EURACTIV Global Europe Newsletter, which is your weekly update of the European Union from a global perspective.

You can subscribe to receive our newsletter here.

In this week’s version: Russian relations are declining, NATO looks to the future, Belarusian immigration plight.

///

The Russian-Western storybook is known for tit-for-tat: the 2006 Litvinenko murder, the 2014 Czech ammunition depot attack, the Skripal poisoning in Salisbury in 2018, and a series of cyber attacks over the years.

Subsequently, European countries expelled dozens of Russian diplomats and suspected spies.Moscow retaliates by designating Western officials Unwelcome person And end the diplomatic mission.

With the addition of Russia’s increased military presence near Ukraine after 2014 and the treatment of the imprisoned dissident Alexei Navalny, the situation has become more tense.

It seems that the relationship between NATO and Russia is not tense enough, now Moscow has announced Will stop Activities of its missions in NATO and NATO diplomatic missions in Russia. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced the news at a press conference on Monday (October 18). Earlier this month, the coalition expelled eight Russians in an espionage operation.

NATO diplomats confirmed this week that Russia has clearly stated its intentions but has not yet issued an official notification to the alliance.

Since the 1990s, the NATO-Russian Council has been a way to keep communication open. It was established to resolve political conflicts stemming from the Cold War and to serve as a platform to manage these conflicts before Russia annexed the Crimea Peninsula.

Bottom line: Russia is not interested in any dialogue with NATO in Brussels. Lavrov also confirmed this. He said, “If NATO members have any emergency, you can contact our ambassador to Belgium”, adding that he does not expect any changes in future relations.

After years of deteriorating relations, sanctions, tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsion, and escalating “information wars”, some people in Moscow are asking whether there is any point in seeking a renewed dialogue.

NATO says it does, but Tango needs two people.

Then there is the situation in the European Union. In the recent energy crisis, access to Russian gas is splitting the group.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been mocking the European Union’s high energy prices, but the latter has no means to force Moscow to change its behavior.

Hungary, which is friendly to the Kremlin, signed two 15-year Russian gas deals last month; Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš stated that the Czech Republic’s failure to obtain similar long-term deals for political reasons is “a mistake”.

But many people are cautious about resuming this long-term relationship with Russia. Since Borel’s unfortunate trip to Moscow, one camp has distrusted Brussels to deal with Russia; others feared that reduced diplomatic interaction would cost them a heavy price.

Polish position (Unsurprisingly) Still unshakable.

Latvian Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš stated that given the EU’s vulnerability to Russia, Putin’s statement that good political relations lead to good gas relations is similar to blackmail.

The EU Energy Minister will discuss these issues at this week’s Special Energy Commission on Tuesday.

but?

The fundamental differences between the EU and Russia in terms of democratic values ​​and European security are most likely to persist, possibly beyond Putin’s scope.

The EU’s chief diplomat Joseph Borrell (Joseph Borrell) in his Recent report The EU should fight back, contain Russia, and engage with Russia to prepare for difficult diplomatic interaction with the country.

But the fact is that the cooperation space between the EU and Russia has become too narrow for serious contacts. This has forced the EU to struggle with the other two options.

This boosted Russia’s confidence, and Moscow called on the European Union earlier this year Stop interference Not only the internal affairs of the post-Soviet countries, but even the internal affairs of the Western Balkan countries, these countries happen to ask for EU membership.

Many Russian observers believe that once the EU starts to be more decisive about what it wants (or to “speak the language of power,” if you will), it will have a better dialogue with Russia.

Mixed threats | Diplomats and officials said the NATO defense minister passed several strategic documents this week and agreed to a new master plan to defend against any potential mixed Russian attacks.

Confidentiality policy Go beyond existing regional defense and deterrence plans. It aims to prepare for any simultaneous attacks in the Baltic and Black Sea regions, which may include coordinated nuclear weapons and cyber attacks from space.

NATO | NATO calls on the EU to work more closely with the military alliance after the latest EU defense efforts have been presented in recent months Parallel structure concerns This may be in competition with NATO.